2012 Stanley Cup Favourites

The Boston Bruins have won the Cup, the entry draft has completed and free agent frenzy is winding to a halt.  The only place I can get my NHL fix is thinking about next season and which teams have the best shot at lifting the Stanley Cup.  I check out 5Dimes.com to see the Stanley Cup odds for next season and it really got me thinking about which teams have a legit shot.  Here are a few teams I like to go far next season and who I will be placing wagers on because their odds are too good to pass up:

Chicago Blackhawks @ +1500

The Blackhawks are the 8th favourites to win the Stanley Cup next season and I personally have them slotted much higher.  I don’t necessarily think they will finish atop their division or even have home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but the Blackhawks have the pieces in place to be a contender every year.  If they score the goal in overtime of game 7 against Vancouver this season I can guarantee that their odds would be closer to 10/1 right now.  People are quick to forget how a team played and instead just remember that they lost in the first round.  The Blackhawks have the top two lines in the NHL, with possibly the exception of San Jose, and their top defensemen are elite and will be hungry to get back to the top.  The loss of Brian Campbell will hurt this team more than most people think, but Nick Leddy is ready to step up with more ice time and Hjalmarsson should play better than he did last season when he let his play slip slightly.  The additions of Brunette, Carcillo and Mayers should bolster the teams depth and tenacity up front, but it really comes down to the fact that Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp and Bolland are just too good.  Corey Crawford is no slouch in goal either.  If the Blackhawks can get the best out of their players and add a bit more depth on defense they should have a very good chance to win the Cup this season.

San Jose Sharks @ +1200

The Sharks are the 6th rated team according to the oddsmakers.  They have made the Conference Finals two years in a row, but haven’t put up much of a fight at that stage.  The Sharks were just too slow and lacked the depth on defense both years.  The addition of Brent Burns should help the defense and take some of the responsibility away from Dan Boyle, while the Havlat for Heatley trade will bring more speed and and greater drive to win when it matters most.  The Sharks still have some positions open for depth forwards and they could do with adding a solid shutdown defenseman with speed.  Niemi is solid in goal, having already won a Stanley Cup, so it’s really the depth up front and the defensive d-men that this team is lacking in order to become a Stanley Cup Champion.  I have confidence that Doug Wilson will address these needs.  I’ve liked what he’s done so far this summer.

For Those Interested…

Here are the odds for the other 8 from the top 10 at 5Dimes.com.  Once it gets past them there really is no hope for finding a Cup Champion.

• Vancouver Canucks +675
• Pittsburgh Penguins +850
• Washington Capitals +1000
• Boston Bruins +1100
• Philadelphia Flyers +1100
• Detroit Red Wings +1250
• LA Kings +1700
• Buffalo Sabres, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning +2000 each

**On an unrelated note a friend of mine is starting a Financial Spread Betting website. Just wanted to give him a little shout out.

Can Luongo Bounce Back?

Roberto Luongo made 30 saves on 38 shots in game 3 of the Stanley Cup playoffs in Boston.  Alain Vigneault apparently did not feel that his goaltender needed to be pulled from the game when it got out of hand.  This could be a tactical decision to show his goaltender that he and the entire team will be sticking with him throughout this series no matter what.  In game four in the Chicago series, Luongo let in 6 goals on 28 shots before being pulled in the third period.  Luongo did not bounce back favourably allowing 4 goals on 12 shots and being pulled early in the second period in game 5.  In game 6 of that series Vigneault went with Schneider, who played a decent game before being injured when he was beaten on a penalty shot by Frolik.  Luongo only allowed one goal in that game, but it was an important one scored by Ben Smith in overtime.  It took these 3 straight losses before Luongo stepped up his game allowing only 1 goal in game seven against the Blackhawks.

Since that first round series Luongo has looked fairly sharp, playing solid for the most part, while allowing a few soft goals here and there.  In the 8-1 shellacking by Boston, however, Luongo did not look sharp at all.  He should have saved at least half of the 8 goals and I am interested to see which Luongo we see tonight.

I half expect the Bruins to come out with another high scoring affair, which is why I’m looking at the -1.5 line for the Bruins tonight at +248.  This line is from 5Dimes and could be considered similar to spread betting bonuses because the juice is reduced, which makes this likely the best Bruins puck line you will find.

Luongo has shown the ability in the past to bounce back from bad games, but he has also shown many instances where he plays just as bad the second time around.  Which Luongo will we see tonight in Boston?  Who do you think will show up?

Boston Bruins Will Win Stanley Cup Final

The Boston Bruins will win the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals over the favourite Vancouver Canucks.  Thats a bold statement considering the Canucks are -230 favourites to win the series, while a $100 bet on the Bruins would win $210 for a payout of $310.  I feel that the Bruins have as good, if not a better chance than the Canucks to win this series.  There are a variety of reasons, each of which will be explained in this article.

Sedin’s Shutdown

The Sedin’s only managed to score a combined 19 points in their first 13 games, while they put up 18 in their last 5.  This may seem like they are heating up, which should be a bad thing for the Bruins, but if you look closer you will see that the reason the Sedin’s were able to dominate the Sharks is because the Sharks do not possess any elite shutdown defensemen (Dan Boyle is an elite d-man, but he is known more for his offensive abilities).  When you look at the Chicago series the Sedin’s had to contend with Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and David Bolland, who successfully shut them down.  In the Nashville series Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are two elite defensemen who did the job.  I expect Chara and Bergeron to be able to slow down the Sedin’s and if they can keep them to under around 0.8 points per game that is in the Bruins favour.

Kesler Injury

Reports indicate that Kesler may be nursing a groin injury that he suffered in game 5 against the Sharks.  He is expected to play, but will he be able to be the force that he has been throughout these playoffs.  Will he be able to stop the hot David Krejci and Nathan Horton top line for the Bruins.  Kesler is a huge part of this Canucks team and if the Sedin’s get shut down the team counts on him for a lot of offense.  We will see how his groin holds up and if he is able to go 100%.

Tim Thomas vs Roberto Luongo

I give the edge to Thomas.  Neither goaltender has been to this stage before, and neither has looked tremendous getting here this year.  Sure, both have had good games, but each have had bad games and let in some bad goals.  I don’t expect the goaltenders to really decide this series, but if I was going to choose one that has the ability to steal games if need be it would be Thomas.

These three reason are why the Bruins will have a good chance at defeating the Canucks in this years Stanley Cup finals.  I’ve already done my hockey betting on this series at 5Dimes, which offers reduced odds for the series (means I make an extra $0.10 on the dollar).  It should be interesting and I’m excited for this to get started tonight.

Congrats To The Chicago Blackhawks

I just wanted to write a quick post to say congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks.  They had a terrific year and deserved to win the Stanley Cup.  I couldn’t have said the same about the Flyers so I’m happy the Blackhawks won.  I like underdog stories, but I prefer for the best team to win when possible to maintain the integrity of the league.  Sure it’s great if anyone can win, but it’s also nice if there are better teams than others in order to show that the game involves skill and not luck.

Hossa deserved the cup as well.  I give him mad respect for only wanting to play for teams who had a legitimate chance at the Stanley Cup.  He’s played a tremendous amount of games over the past three years making the finals each of the last three years with different teams and also representing his country at the Olympics.  Good for you Hossa.

Kane proved me wrong this year.  He has definitely matured into a much more well rounded player.  One that I would love to have on my team.  I’m glad he scored the overtime goal because it’s nice when a star player can score that goal to win the Stanley Cup for his team.

This Stanley Cup also proves that paying the depth players what they have and handcuffing themselves for next season paid off.  If a team could win the cup one year only to miss the playoffs the next 4 years in a row they should take that deal any day.  And the great thing about the ‘Hawks is even if the lose some players they still have the cornerstones in place for them to be a great team for a long time, so they don’t even have to worry about becoming a losing team.  Dale Tallon deserves a lot of credit for building this team.  Maybe he actually did know what he was doing when he paid those players what he did!

Anyways, I’m going to wrap this up.  Congrats to the Blackhawks.  Next year it’s going to be a Sens vs Wild finals !

End of Season NHL Predictions

Maurice Richard Trophy Winner

Who will finish the season with the most goals?  Right now it’s between Crosby (45), Ovechkin (44) & Stamkos (42).

If Ovechkin didn’t keep getting suspended this year he’d probably already have close to 50 goals, but his hard hitting, (some may say reckless) style has kept him out of a few games this year.  Ovechkin has missed 10 games this year, but he is still only one goal behind Crosby.  If Ovy can play the final 11 games for the Capitals then I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to Ovechkin and say he is most likely to win the Maurice.

I think it would be hilarious if Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year and won the Maurice, while Ovechkin got way more assists than Crosby and won the Art Ross.  That kind of roll reversal would be funny to me, but I don’t anticipate it happening.

Art Ross Trophy Winner

This is basically a two horse race at the moment: Ovechkin (96), H. Sedin (94).  Those two games missed by Ovechkin recently allowed Sedin to gain 3 points to be within 2 with each player having 11 games remaining.  As much as I would like to see Henrik take this trophy and put a dent in the “big 3″ of Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin, I can’t see it happening.  The Capitals are just too explosive.  They will score and Ovy will get points.  I’m not saying they will score because of Ovy, but they will score a lot and he will inevitably get points.  I don’t think Ovechkin is as good as most people think though and I believe the Capitals would actually be better off in the playoffs without him.  That being said Backstrom to me is one of the best in the game today and Ovechkin will benefit from playing with him.

Presidents Trophy Winner

This trophy is pretty much already awarded.  Just give it to the Washington Capitals and Alex Ovechkin right now.  If he sweeps all of these awards it would be pretty remarkable.  Good thing he didn’t win the gold medal at the Olympics!

Stanley Cup Winner

I might as well make a Stanley Cup prediction in this post as well.  Right now I’m going to say the Chicago Blackhawks, but this could quickly change by the end of the year.  Some of you might be saying, “why not Washington?”.  Well to be honest I don’t think Ovechkin is a good playoff ingredient for that team.  Last year he would try to do everything himself and that’s just not the way to win playoff games.  If Ovechkin and the Capitals continue to play a team based offensive game like they have been all season and it doesn’t turn into the Ovechkin show then I think the Capitals have a legit chance of doing something great this season.

You can check out the odds for all of these predictions at many sports betting sites online.  If you do wager, be sure to go with my picks if you want to win money !