Ottawa Senators Odds to Win 2012 Stanley Cup

The Senators did it.  They proved every single so called “hockey expert” wrong and made the NHL playoffs with 3 games to spare.  As we all know the Sens were predicted to finish last by most experts, including The Hockey News and were in the bottom five by 99% of analysts.  Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson lead the way this season, but bounce back years by veterans Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba and of course Daniel Alfredsson also played a huge role and provided the drive and leadership for the newer players on the team to follow.  I want to just say that Kuba has had an outstanding year.  He is often overshadowed by his d-partner Karlsson, but having a year like he has is quite remarkable, especially after Sens fans were calling for his head last season.  Kuba is the top non-Bruin in +/- at this point in the season with a +28, which is quite an improvement on his -26 last season!

Now that the Sens are there it’s time to assess their chances at putting it all together and winning the Stanley Cup.  What a story that would be.  Come from 30th on the power rankings entering the season to the Stanley Cup Champions.  I for one am not closing the door on this possibility.  Sportsbook 5Dimes.eu has the Senators at +4000 to win the Stanley Cup which is tied for 16th in the league along with the Coyotes (the Sabres and Capitals still have shorter odds than the Senators even though they haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot and the Stars are +4400 even while they are almost mathematically eliminated).  Bet365 is a little bit kinder having the Senators at +2800, which is better than the Sabres, Capitals and Panthers and equal to the Coyotes.  But if you want to bet on the Sens to win the Cup you should do so at 5Dimes.eu.

I agree that Ottawa is a huge long shot to win the Cup and if it all played out 40 times I would still likely be surprised if one of those times Alfredsson was receiving the Cup from Commissioner Bettman, but I do believe that have a better chance than many of the other teams in the hunt.

Bryan Murray said it earlier in the season that he was not ruling out a deep playoff run and he gave a great reason for this.  The puck moving ability of Ottawa’s d-men.  Erik Karlsson is the best combination of puck moving and skating for a d-man in the league as his regular season point total no doubt confirms.  Gonchar is no slouch either and I expect him to bring his game to another level in the playoffs.  Kuba is another player who can make that breakout pass and newly acquired Matt Gilroy has shown that he has the skating ability, now he just has to show some better decision making when it comes to jumping into the rush or trying to take on 3 opposition players rather than dumping and allowing his forwards to chase.  If the Senators plan to go far their defensemen need to be on top of their game and I believe that their top 5 are extremely solid and if Gilroy can play within himself the Sens 6 D could be the top in the league.

As for goal scoring that will surely fall to Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson, Kyle Turris and Nick Foligno.  These five players have to put the puck in the net for the Senators in order for the team to win games.  Jason Spezza will be a primary focus of opposition shutdown players, which means that Kyle Turris will have to step up and put up points for the Senators to win games.  In the first round Zdeno Chara will surely be matched up against Spezza and everyone knows that Chara is the best shutdown defenseman in the game.  I believe Spezza is shifty enough to matchup fairly well against Chara, but a lot of production responsibility will still fall to the Turris and Alfredsson line throughout the playoffs.

The Senators will be a tough out in this years playoffs if they can do the following things.

Senators Keys To Victory

• Karlsson, Spezza and Michalek continue production from regular season.
• Turris line steps up when Spezza line is shut down by superior defensemen.
• Gilroy plays within himself.
• Anderson gets hot.
• Less penalties than in regular season. (14.1 minutes per game – 2nd most in NHL)
• Power play has to start working again.

Will Radulov Help the Nashville Predators?

Radulov has tweeted that he is on his way to Nashville and barring any obstacles he will be joining the team within a couple of games.  The NHL has said that the Predators still own the rights to Radulov because they never acknowledged the deal he had with the KHL so Nashville has the right to allow him to return from “suspension” and rejoin the team for their playoff push.  Preds GM David Poile has stated that he always expected Radulov to return at some point because he felt that Radulov was the type of player who wanted to test himself against the best players in the world.  After Radulov plays out this season and playoffs he will become a restricted free agent in the NHL and will likely return for good (these last few regular season games and the playoffs will likely determine if he does stay because they will determine his NHL value moving forward).  So now that we are fairly certain that Nashville will be adding Radulov the question becomes how much does he help them and does he turn them into a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.

Many will argue that having two of the best d-men in the NHL and the few moves they made near the deadline (Gill, Kostitsyn and Gaustad) will have already put them as a Cup contender, but others will also argue that they don’t have the high end skill up front to score the necessary goals in the NHL playoffs.  At this time Martin Erat leads the team in points with 56, while Mike Fisher and Patrik Hornqvist each have 23 goals to lead the team.  The Preds do have 6 players with 40+ points though and they actually have the 4th more goals for in the Western Conference at this time so the whole Nashville can’t score argument goes out the window.  But aside from Erat the highest points per game is Fisher at .71.  Radulov was a .72 points per game player in his last season in Nashville and by his play in the KHL he has improved and should add some more spark to the lineup.

Radulov will slot in in the top 6 and I don’t expect him to hurt the Predators league leading powerplay.  He could be put on the second unit in that respect in order to allow the top unit to continue clicking at their steady pace, but overall the addition of Radulov should help offensively.

And it’s really a no lose situation for the Predators who have about 10 games in the regular season to see where Radulov fits in and make sure he doesn’t mess with any team chemistry and lines that are already clicking.  So far the additions of Kostitsyn and Gaustad have fit in nicely so I would expect Radulov, who should be a higher end player than either to fit in even better.

My personal opinion is that Radulov will help the Predators advance to at least the second round again this year and give them a really legitimate shot of winning the Stanley Cup.  Visit SportsInteraction.com to check out the Predators Stanley Cup odds now that Radulov is back.

2012 Stanley Cup Favourites

The Boston Bruins have won the Cup, the entry draft has completed and free agent frenzy is winding to a halt.  The only place I can get my NHL fix is thinking about next season and which teams have the best shot at lifting the Stanley Cup.  I check out 5Dimes.com to see the Stanley Cup odds for next season and it really got me thinking about which teams have a legit shot.  Here are a few teams I like to go far next season and who I will be placing wagers on because their odds are too good to pass up:

Chicago Blackhawks @ +1500

The Blackhawks are the 8th favourites to win the Stanley Cup next season and I personally have them slotted much higher.  I don’t necessarily think they will finish atop their division or even have home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but the Blackhawks have the pieces in place to be a contender every year.  If they score the goal in overtime of game 7 against Vancouver this season I can guarantee that their odds would be closer to 10/1 right now.  People are quick to forget how a team played and instead just remember that they lost in the first round.  The Blackhawks have the top two lines in the NHL, with possibly the exception of San Jose, and their top defensemen are elite and will be hungry to get back to the top.  The loss of Brian Campbell will hurt this team more than most people think, but Nick Leddy is ready to step up with more ice time and Hjalmarsson should play better than he did last season when he let his play slip slightly.  The additions of Brunette, Carcillo and Mayers should bolster the teams depth and tenacity up front, but it really comes down to the fact that Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp and Bolland are just too good.  Corey Crawford is no slouch in goal either.  If the Blackhawks can get the best out of their players and add a bit more depth on defense they should have a very good chance to win the Cup this season.

San Jose Sharks @ +1200

The Sharks are the 6th rated team according to the oddsmakers.  They have made the Conference Finals two years in a row, but haven’t put up much of a fight at that stage.  The Sharks were just too slow and lacked the depth on defense both years.  The addition of Brent Burns should help the defense and take some of the responsibility away from Dan Boyle, while the Havlat for Heatley trade will bring more speed and and greater drive to win when it matters most.  The Sharks still have some positions open for depth forwards and they could do with adding a solid shutdown defenseman with speed.  Niemi is solid in goal, having already won a Stanley Cup, so it’s really the depth up front and the defensive d-men that this team is lacking in order to become a Stanley Cup Champion.  I have confidence that Doug Wilson will address these needs.  I’ve liked what he’s done so far this summer.

For Those Interested…

Here are the odds for the other 8 from the top 10 at 5Dimes.com.  Once it gets past them there really is no hope for finding a Cup Champion.

• Vancouver Canucks +675
• Pittsburgh Penguins +850
• Washington Capitals +1000
• Boston Bruins +1100
• Philadelphia Flyers +1100
• Detroit Red Wings +1250
• LA Kings +1700
• Buffalo Sabres, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning +2000 each

**On an unrelated note a friend of mine is starting a Financial Spread Betting website. Just wanted to give him a little shout out.

Can Luongo Bounce Back?

Roberto Luongo made 30 saves on 38 shots in game 3 of the Stanley Cup playoffs in Boston.  Alain Vigneault apparently did not feel that his goaltender needed to be pulled from the game when it got out of hand.  This could be a tactical decision to show his goaltender that he and the entire team will be sticking with him throughout this series no matter what.  In game four in the Chicago series, Luongo let in 6 goals on 28 shots before being pulled in the third period.  Luongo did not bounce back favourably allowing 4 goals on 12 shots and being pulled early in the second period in game 5.  In game 6 of that series Vigneault went with Schneider, who played a decent game before being injured when he was beaten on a penalty shot by Frolik.  Luongo only allowed one goal in that game, but it was an important one scored by Ben Smith in overtime.  It took these 3 straight losses before Luongo stepped up his game allowing only 1 goal in game seven against the Blackhawks.

Since that first round series Luongo has looked fairly sharp, playing solid for the most part, while allowing a few soft goals here and there.  In the 8-1 shellacking by Boston, however, Luongo did not look sharp at all.  He should have saved at least half of the 8 goals and I am interested to see which Luongo we see tonight.

I half expect the Bruins to come out with another high scoring affair, which is why I’m looking at the -1.5 line for the Bruins tonight at +248.  This line is from 5Dimes and could be considered similar to spread betting bonuses because the juice is reduced, which makes this likely the best Bruins puck line you will find.

Luongo has shown the ability in the past to bounce back from bad games, but he has also shown many instances where he plays just as bad the second time around.  Which Luongo will we see tonight in Boston?  Who do you think will show up?

Boston Bruins Will Win Stanley Cup Final

The Boston Bruins will win the 2011 Stanley Cup Finals over the favourite Vancouver Canucks.  Thats a bold statement considering the Canucks are -230 favourites to win the series, while a $100 bet on the Bruins would win $210 for a payout of $310.  I feel that the Bruins have as good, if not a better chance than the Canucks to win this series.  There are a variety of reasons, each of which will be explained in this article.

Sedin’s Shutdown

The Sedin’s only managed to score a combined 19 points in their first 13 games, while they put up 18 in their last 5.  This may seem like they are heating up, which should be a bad thing for the Bruins, but if you look closer you will see that the reason the Sedin’s were able to dominate the Sharks is because the Sharks do not possess any elite shutdown defensemen (Dan Boyle is an elite d-man, but he is known more for his offensive abilities).  When you look at the Chicago series the Sedin’s had to contend with Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook and David Bolland, who successfully shut them down.  In the Nashville series Shea Weber and Ryan Suter are two elite defensemen who did the job.  I expect Chara and Bergeron to be able to slow down the Sedin’s and if they can keep them to under around 0.8 points per game that is in the Bruins favour.

Kesler Injury

Reports indicate that Kesler may be nursing a groin injury that he suffered in game 5 against the Sharks.  He is expected to play, but will he be able to be the force that he has been throughout these playoffs.  Will he be able to stop the hot David Krejci and Nathan Horton top line for the Bruins.  Kesler is a huge part of this Canucks team and if the Sedin’s get shut down the team counts on him for a lot of offense.  We will see how his groin holds up and if he is able to go 100%.

Tim Thomas vs Roberto Luongo

I give the edge to Thomas.  Neither goaltender has been to this stage before, and neither has looked tremendous getting here this year.  Sure, both have had good games, but each have had bad games and let in some bad goals.  I don’t expect the goaltenders to really decide this series, but if I was going to choose one that has the ability to steal games if need be it would be Thomas.

These three reason are why the Bruins will have a good chance at defeating the Canucks in this years Stanley Cup finals.  I’ve already done my hockey betting on this series at 5Dimes, which offers reduced odds for the series (means I make an extra $0.10 on the dollar).  It should be interesting and I’m excited for this to get started tonight.

Congrats To The Chicago Blackhawks

I just wanted to write a quick post to say congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks.  They had a terrific year and deserved to win the Stanley Cup.  I couldn’t have said the same about the Flyers so I’m happy the Blackhawks won.  I like underdog stories, but I prefer for the best team to win when possible to maintain the integrity of the league.  Sure it’s great if anyone can win, but it’s also nice if there are better teams than others in order to show that the game involves skill and not luck.

Hossa deserved the cup as well.  I give him mad respect for only wanting to play for teams who had a legitimate chance at the Stanley Cup.  He’s played a tremendous amount of games over the past three years making the finals each of the last three years with different teams and also representing his country at the Olympics.  Good for you Hossa.

Kane proved me wrong this year.  He has definitely matured into a much more well rounded player.  One that I would love to have on my team.  I’m glad he scored the overtime goal because it’s nice when a star player can score that goal to win the Stanley Cup for his team.

This Stanley Cup also proves that paying the depth players what they have and handcuffing themselves for next season paid off.  If a team could win the cup one year only to miss the playoffs the next 4 years in a row they should take that deal any day.  And the great thing about the ‘Hawks is even if the lose some players they still have the cornerstones in place for them to be a great team for a long time, so they don’t even have to worry about becoming a losing team.  Dale Tallon deserves a lot of credit for building this team.  Maybe he actually did know what he was doing when he paid those players what he did!

Anyways, I’m going to wrap this up.  Congrats to the Blackhawks.  Next year it’s going to be a Sens vs Wild finals !

End of Season NHL Predictions

Maurice Richard Trophy Winner

Who will finish the season with the most goals?  Right now it’s between Crosby (45), Ovechkin (44) & Stamkos (42).

If Ovechkin didn’t keep getting suspended this year he’d probably already have close to 50 goals, but his hard hitting, (some may say reckless) style has kept him out of a few games this year.  Ovechkin has missed 10 games this year, but he is still only one goal behind Crosby.  If Ovy can play the final 11 games for the Capitals then I’m going to give the benefit of the doubt to Ovechkin and say he is most likely to win the Maurice.

I think it would be hilarious if Crosby scored more goals than Ovechkin this year and won the Maurice, while Ovechkin got way more assists than Crosby and won the Art Ross.  That kind of roll reversal would be funny to me, but I don’t anticipate it happening.

Art Ross Trophy Winner

This is basically a two horse race at the moment: Ovechkin (96), H. Sedin (94).  Those two games missed by Ovechkin recently allowed Sedin to gain 3 points to be within 2 with each player having 11 games remaining.  As much as I would like to see Henrik take this trophy and put a dent in the “big 3″ of Ovechkin, Crosby and Malkin, I can’t see it happening.  The Capitals are just too explosive.  They will score and Ovy will get points.  I’m not saying they will score because of Ovy, but they will score a lot and he will inevitably get points.  I don’t think Ovechkin is as good as most people think though and I believe the Capitals would actually be better off in the playoffs without him.  That being said Backstrom to me is one of the best in the game today and Ovechkin will benefit from playing with him.

Presidents Trophy Winner

This trophy is pretty much already awarded.  Just give it to the Washington Capitals and Alex Ovechkin right now.  If he sweeps all of these awards it would be pretty remarkable.  Good thing he didn’t win the gold medal at the Olympics!

Stanley Cup Winner

I might as well make a Stanley Cup prediction in this post as well.  Right now I’m going to say the Chicago Blackhawks, but this could quickly change by the end of the year.  Some of you might be saying, “why not Washington?”.  Well to be honest I don’t think Ovechkin is a good playoff ingredient for that team.  Last year he would try to do everything himself and that’s just not the way to win playoff games.  If Ovechkin and the Capitals continue to play a team based offensive game like they have been all season and it doesn’t turn into the Ovechkin show then I think the Capitals have a legit chance of doing something great this season.

You can check out the odds for all of these predictions at many sports betting sites online.  If you do wager, be sure to go with my picks if you want to win money !