How Will the Ottawa Senators Do This Season?

Most so called “experts” have the Senators finishing near the basement of the Eastern Conference, and even the league.  Even NHL12 has the Sens as clearly the worst team in the league in terms of team stats (which is a real bummer because it makes it much more difficult for me to play with my team) – that’s right the Sens are my team so take this article with a grain of salt.  Personally, I think the Sens have a legit shot to battle for a playoff position until the end of the year.  I have them slotted in around 8th – 10th in terms of the Eastern Conference power rankings, and as you can see, that 8th place is in there so they have a shot at the playoffs.

Here Is Why

The Senators top 7 defencemen are actually very solid and I wouldn’t trade them for the top 7 d-men on at least 20 other teams in the league.  You have Erik Karlsson, a young guy with about as much playmaking talent as a d-man could have.  He will make sure that the Sens score powerplay goals and you can expect his plus-minus to be much better this year, as his defensive game improves.  Add in Sergei Gonchar, who we all know can be a top guy on any team if he plays like he has throughout his career and the Sens powerplays should have two legitimate quarterbacks.  Then you have Chris Phillips who has been a top shutdown guy his entire year and who anchored his team to the cup finals only a few years ago.  Alright, I don’t like Filip Kuba, but that is the only slot in the top 7 I’m not fond of.  Matt Carkner is the perfect 6th d-man on a team, with a toughness and presence that can help against rough opposition, and then you have two rookies who are ready for the big time.  David Rundblad was the Swedish Elite League’s top d-man last season and you can tell by watching him play that he will be another great puck mover from the back-end and he is a 3rd legit powerplay quarterback.  Then Jared Cowen, who is showing shades of Tyler Myers, is another big guy who can shutdown down low and has already showed he has the ability to provide offense with his two goals in the first preseason game.  The Sens are fine at the back end and they will get the puck to their forwards.

The goaltending situation is also solved.  Craig Anderson slipped a little at the start of last season, but the Avs are a worse team than the Sens and he showed in his games with the Senators he still has what it takes.  Anderson is a legitimate number 1 goaltender who has the ability to steal games, a few of which will be needed for the Senators to make the playoffs this season.

The Problem

The problem lies in the forwards.  Spezza can’t do it all.  Alfredsson and Michalek need to play at their best and then other goals have to come from the likes of Foligno, Butler, Regin and hopefully Filatov.  A few of these lesser known Senators will break out this year with the absence of Fisher and Kelly, but this is necessary for the team to win games.  I hope that GM Brian Murray doesn’t just keep Greening and Condra at the big club because he signed them to one-way contracts even if guys like Da Costa, Filatov, etc are more deserving and are better pieces to the puzzle.  The Senators need goals from up front.  Spezza and Alffy can’t do it all.

I think the Senators will surprise some people this year.  They have nothing to lose, with a young team that is eager to win and many players that know how to win from their Binghamton Calder Cup last season.  I for one am going to check out some sports gambling sites and hopefully find some great odds for the Senators throughout the season, due to the fact they are being underestimated by the masses.

Why The New Jersey Devils WILL Make the Playoffs

The Devils are on a remarkable 20-2-2 run, which begs the question: Can they keep this up and make history by making the playoffs?  They have 17 games remaining and are currently sitting 8 points out of the 8th and final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference.  They are in 12th, which means there are teams in front of them who are also battling for that final spot.  Actually, there are really 4 teams fighting for the final two spots in the East.  They are as follows:

New York Rangers 74 points with 14 games remaining
Buffalo Sabres 72 points with 17 games remaining
Carolina Hurricanes 71 points with 16 games remaining
Toronto Maple Leafs 67 points with 16 games remaining

Then you have the Atlanta Thrashers, but you can basically dismiss them because they have been playing so poorly of late that they really stand no chance.  But now you also have to add a fifth team.  That being the New Jersey Devils:

New Jersey Devils 64 points with 17 games remaining

24 games ago the Devils were 27 points out of the playoffs.  Now after going 20-2-2 the team finds themselves only 8 points back.  If they were to make the playoffs they would make history as the team that came from the furthest amount of points back from the playoffs to turn their season around and make the postseason.  This record would likely never be broken.

What Do They Have To Do?

Let’s take a look at the two teams they are chasing.  If you use each contending teams point percentage to this point in the season and assume that they will continue at this pace we can figure out how many points the Devils may need to pass these teams.

The New York Rangers earn an average of (74/68 = 1.088) points per game they play, which means they will finish the season with ~89 points.
The Sabres have more games in hand and will finish the season with ~91 points.

This means the Rangers will be more likely to be caught and if these two teams maintain their current winning percentages the Devils will need 89 points to make the playoffs (because the Devils would own the tie breaker having won more games in regulation or overtime).

Therefore, in their final 17 games if the Devils go something like (12-4-1) they will achieve this 89 point objective.  But to be more certain of making the playoffs (any of the four teams ahead of them could also get hot and push up the magic number to gain playoff entry) the Devils may need to go around (13-2-2) for 92 points.  This is a very difficult pace to maintain, but looking at their schedule the Devils play 5 very winnable games, which could put them right in the thick of things.  The Devils play the struggling Thrashers and Senators twice, and the not struggling, but still very beatable Islanders once.  If they can come out of these 5 games with 10 points (very possible considering their current streak along with each of these teams abilities) the Devils will likely only be around 4 points out of 8th position.  From then on they will hold more of their fate because they have a game against the Sabres remaining and a game against the Rangers in their 81st game of the season, which could very well determine their playoff fate.

I’m a believer….are you?

**In other betting news, namely horse racing you will be able to place Grand National bets very soon on the upcoming April 9th race (coincidentally the same day the Rangers vs Devils matchup takes place).  Kentucky Derby betting will also start to heat up soon for the May 7th race.

NHL Playoff Predictions at the Two Thirds Mark

The NHL season is approximately 2/3′s of the way finished.  The two-thirds mark is actually about 54.5 games and looking at the standings today most teams are right around that number – some over some under, but close enough.  In this post I’m going to be giving my predictions of where teams will finish in their conference at the end of the regular season.  I’ll give a little snippit about my reasoning, but this is mostly just to put down my predictions.  Do with them what you will.

Eastern Conference

1. Philadelphia Flyers
2. Washington Capitals
3. Boston Bruins
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Montreal Canadiens
7. Buffalo Sabres
   
8. Carolina Hurricanes
9. New York Rangers
10. Atlanta Thrashers
11. New Jersey Devils
12. Toronto Maple Leafs
13. Florida Panthers
14. New York Islanders
15. Ottawa Senators

What you might notice in this conference is how I have the Washington Capitals passing the Tampa Bay Lightning for the top spot in the Southeast Division.  The Caps are underachieving and I think the Lightning are overachieving at the moment.  The Capitals are a good team who should get a lot of wins down the stretch.

Another thing you may notice is the Buffalo Sabres finishing in 7th and making the playoffs.  This would have been absurd to think at the 1/3 mark, but they have been playing great and have a good enough team to pass the Rangers, Hurricanes and Thrashers down the stretch.  This left the Rangers and Thrashers out of the playoffs.

Finally, the Ottawa Senators will come last in the East and most likely last in the league.  The team will sell hard at the deadline and sputter down the stretch, but this will at least guarantee them a top 2 overall pick in the draft.

Western Conference

1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Detroit Red Wings
3. San Jose Sharks
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Nashville Predators
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. Minnesota Wild
8. Los Angeles Kings
9. Dallas Stars
10. Phoenix Coyotes
11. Colorado Avalanche
12. Calgary Flames
13. Columbus Blue Jackets
14. St. Louis Blues
15. Edmonton Oilers

The West is way more jam packed at the moment which allowed me to really do a lot with my predictions.  The first division winners shouldn’t be much of a surprise, with the only move being San Jose catching Dallas for the Pacific division championship.

Now let’s move into the surpises.  The Blackhawks are currently in 11th and I have them finishing in 4th.  The team is simply too good not to make the playoffs and the spread between 4th and 11th at the moment is only 6 points.  I expect the Blackhawks to start playing some playoff style hockey and to move up the standings.  They were the Cup favourites at the beginning of the season!

After that I see the Preds continuing to play streaky hockey and the wins they string together will be enough to get them into 5th spot.  After that the Ducks will move up from 7th to 6th and the Wild and Kings will take the playoff spots away from the Stars, Flames and Coyotes to secure the last two spots.  I’m a Havlat fan so that may be biased, but I truly believe they have a good enough team, especially with Zidlicky coming back and Backstrom playing grade A hockey.  The Kings will not allow themselves to miss playoffs and will squeek into 8th in order to give the ‘Nucks a tough first round matchup.  The only other small surprise is the Avs getting up to 11th with the help of Forsberg.  The spread from 4th to 12th will still be only around 6 points come playoff time, so the West will go right down to the wire!

This race will make for some great hockey betting online.  If NHL betting interests you make sure to check out a variety of sports betting sites in order to find the one that is best for you.  Look for things such as bonuses, deposit options, customer service, but above all else use a bookie that is trusted.

Round 1 NHL Playoff Predictions

This is going to be a quick post stating my first round NHL playoff predictions.  The run to the Stanley Cup begins tomorrow so it’s an exciting time of year for hockey fans everywhere.  I’m not sure if you remember, but last year I went 8 for 8 in the first round of the playoffs, which included upsets such as Anaheim over the Sharks and the Hurricanes over the Devils.  This year I hope to do the same, but my first round predictions don’t include as many big upsets.  Check them out below:

Get the 2010-11 NHL First Round Predictions here.

Eastern Conference Predictions

(1) Washington Capitals -650
(8) Montreal Canadiens +425

Winner: Washington Capitals in 5.

(2) New Jersey Devils -235
(7) Philadelphia Flyers +195

Winner: New Jersey Devils in 6.

(3) Buffalo Sabres -170
(6) Boston Bruins +150

Winner: Boston Bruins in 6.

(4) Pittsburgh Penguins -280
(5) Ottawa Senators +240

Winner: Pittsburgh Penguins in 6.

Western Conference Predictions

(1) San Jose Sharks -450
(8) Colorado Avalanche +325

Winner: San Jose Sharks in 4.

(2) Chicago Blackhawks -450
(7) Nashville Predators +325

Winner: Chicago Blackhawks in 6.

(3) Vancouver Canucks -245
(6) Los Angeles Kings +205

Winner: Vancouver Canucks in 5.

(4) Phoenix Coyotes +165
(5) Detroit Red Wings -190

Winner: Detroit Red Wings in 7.

If you like hockey betting then I would suggest signing up at Bookmaker.com.  They will have NHL playoff first round odds for every series so you can place as many bets as you’d like!

Red Wings vs Ducks Recap and Prediction for the Detroit vs Chicago Blackhawks Conference Finals

Wings and Ducks recap

Well the Wings barely snuck out of this series, but what a series this was.  Starting right off the bat with controversey in game one with the Hudler hit, and then the triple overtime in game two.  Moving to Anaheim we saw the disallowed goal, and then the Wings come back and chase Hiller out of the net in game 5. Game six saw the Ducks rebound and prevent the Wings from finishing another series out on the road.  Game 7 was the best game seven of these playoff we saw hits, goals, saves, and of course octapi.  With the Wings taking this series they move on to the conferance finals to meet Chicago.

The Wings won this series because of many things.  Firstly Osgood still showed us why he is one of the best playoff goaltenders of all time besting Patrick Roy in goals against average (2.11 Vs. 2.30 in the playoffs), but also following that up with three Stanley Cup Rings.  Beyond the crease Rafalski returned for game 6 and 7 quickly returning to form and moving alongside his usual partner of Lindstrom, thus keeping the other two tandums in tact (Stuart and Kronwall, Lebda and Ericsson).  The Defense played well but Lindstrom couldnt find the offensive production he had in game one, and Rafalski needs to get back on the scoreboard.  Offensively the Wings were terrific all lines were contributing, on both ends of the ice.  Babcock did shuffle the lines successfully to win game 4 moving Franzen with Filpulla and Hossa, while reuniting Datsyuk, Holmstrom and Zetterberg.  This trio didnt stay together long as Holmstrom quickley made his way into the dog house.  Babcock will keep shuffling Holmstrom around till he starts producing.

The Ducks lost for one reason they couldnt find secondary scoring beyond the first line.  Carlyle did shuffle up Getzlaf, Ryan, and Perry but never kep them apart for long.  Selanne did contribute but that was it.  The Ducks were not rolling four lines as well as the Wings were and this tired them out after that long game 2.  The Ducks weren’t the disciplined team that they needed to be taking stupid penalties throughout the whole series, but luckily the Wings powerplay took a drop without Rafalski in the lineup.  While Hiller shone greatly in this series, he lost his confidence and edge in games 4 and 5 getting chased and letting in nine goals.

Moving on for this Ducks team is this the last game for Selanne, and Niedermayer two future hall of famers?  What happens to Giguere after the emergence of Hiller. What is Anaheim going to do to adress their secondary scoring problems?

Detroit and Chicago

This will be another great series.  Detroit beat Chicago in the season series 4-2 including a great Winter Classic showdown.  Both these teams will be energized and ready to play sunday, this two day break, along with the minimal travel time between Chicago and Detroit will keep this a fast paced, high goal scoring series.

Detroit will win because of experiance and depth plain and simple They’ve been here the last two years and seem better this year then they were last year. All four lines for Detroit are firing, and Detroit still has some players in teh reserve if needed in Maltby, Mcarthy, and Meech.  Homer and Datsyuk will have to come up big this series, they need to revitalize their first line specially against the Keith Seabrook tandum.  The Franzen line will be against Campbell Hjalmarsson which will be tough but Campbell has lost some of his edge in the playoffs, and they haven’t faced players the likes of Hossa and Franzen yet so that will be an interesting battle.

Chicago  Will need to keep firing, and they have a chance if their secondary scoring comes up big like it did in round two, this is what Anaheim lacked to win.  Khabibulin hasent played as spectacular as Hiller has, but wiht cup experiance he has it in him, so we will see how he performs.  Kane, Toews, and Havlat haven’t faced a great defensive squad like the Wings so that will be the Hawks biggest test

Prediction

I think Detroit takes this in 6, the young Chicago team hasn’t played at this level yet it will be interesting to see how they react

NHL Playoff 2009 Round 2 Predictions

ROUND 2 Predictions

Boston(1) vs. Carolina(6)

A maybe too well rested Boston squad faces off against Carolina, a team who should most probably be weary after knocking off the Devils in what I thought was a bit more than a slight upset. There are only two main hypotheses that come to mind in this case. Boston will take some time to get back into the rhythm of things while Carolina will struggle to keep up the pace as the series lengthens. On that fact alone, I’d have to give the series to Boston, but seeing as how it’s the eastern conference leading Bruins up against the Canes, I can’t see this going any farther than 5 games.

Prediction: Boston in 5

Washington(2) vs. Pittsburgh(4)

As much as I enjoyed the Washington comeback in the previous round, I doubt that run will continue into the second round. Pittsburgh simply won’t provide the Capitals with the same comeback opportunities that a weak Rangers team did in round one. The only way I could see the Capitals making it to the next round is with outstanding backing by Varlamov to counter a strong Penguins offense, which seems unlikely as they go further into the playoffs considering his lack of experience.

Prediction: Pittsburgh in 6

Detroit(2) vs. Anaheim(8)

I’m not saying that Anaheim’s victory in the first round was anything less than what it was, but I’m sure San Jose would have found a way to lose against any team they played. This seemed like a fairly straight-forward prediction in Detroit. Between the play-off experience and steady goaltending Detroit should be able to pull through without too many problems. That being said, I do expect a Detroit hick-up sometime this series. It just seems to happen almost every year. So with that and Hiller possibly stealing a game or two, I expect this series to make it to 6 games.

Prediction: Detroit in 6

Vancouver(3) vs. Chicago(4)

Hmmm…So here’s the tough decision. Do I go with a tough, emotional Canucks team who have a strong defensive presence centered around arguably, the best goaltender currently in the game, or do I go with a young, up and coming Hawks team with a lot of talent, who is quickly making a name for themselves this playoff season. For me this comes down directly between Chicago’s pipes. Will we see the “Bulin Wall”? I don’t think we will and that’s why I ultimately have to go with Vancouver. Either way, I think this is bound to be an exciting series which will most likely flip-flop in terms of wins.

Prediction: Vancouver in 7

Round One Recap

San Jose Vs. Anaheim

The best player in this series was no doubt Hiller, followed closely by Getzlaf.  The sharks have been favored for years to advance far into the stanley cup playoffs, nothing change this year.  After being out scored, out hit, and out goaltendended again in the playoffs Thorton and Marleau’s leadership abilities have come into question.  Their are even rumours swirling that Marleau and\or Thorton are on the out’s from San Jose.  Enough about San Jose, lets talk bout the winners.  The top line from the Ducks featuring Ryan, Getzlaf, and Perry played amazing, arguably one of the best in the first series.  Niedermayer led the way on defence, and Pronger had a great series.  We must not forget about hte efforts of Beauchemain, and Wisneski.  I Called San Jose in this series, but this is the last time I bank on San Jose

Detroit Vs. Columbus

Best player in the series was Osgood, showing why hes one of the best playoff goalies of our generation.  There isnt much to write about this series.  No one took Columbus as a threat and the Wings just mowed over the Blue Jackets.  I called this series correctly, but then again who didn’t.

Vancover Vs. St-Louis

Best player in this series was Luongo.  Once again no surprises here, even though the Blues were the hottest team going into the playoffs, Vancover was superior on paper, and that translated nicely onto the ice.  A physical series that didn’t last very long.  I called this series correctly.

Chicago Vs. Calgary

By far the best series in the west, with the best player being Seabrook.  Seabrook is now the highest scoring defensemen in the playoffs played a good shut-down role alongside Keith and really gave it to Igilna, who was mediocore, at best in this series.  This series has intense physical battles, Byfuglien, Burrish played their roles perfectly.  Byfuglien was a force all series even scoring goals, and being a good finess player (See his play in the last game where he circled Leopold).  Toews played great in his frist series, but Kane, Jokinen, and Cammaleri weren’t anything amazing but nevertheless fun to watch.  I took Chicago in this series.

Boston Vs. Montreal

Its hard to pick a best player in this Series I will give the award to Kessel, Savard, Chara, and Ryder.  It’s hard to say anything positive about this series Montreal centenial season was plagued with downs, and this series was another one of those downs.  Boston played a physical game and this took its toll on the Habs and threw them off their game. Like everyone else I took Boston in this series

Washington Vs. Rangers

Varlemov was probably the best player in this series, but facing a low scoring Rangers offence can make any goalie look good.  The star players from the Capitals didnt play particularily good, but luckily neither did the Ranger’s.  I tookl the Rangers to win this series for one reason.  I didnt think a team backstopped by Theodore could win a series, and I was technically right, but I know now to not overestimate the ranger.  Lundquist could steal a game or two b ut not 4.

New Jersey Vs. Carolina

You have to say Stall was the best player in this series.  What an end to game 7, kudos to the Canes for not quitting.  I expected alot more from the Devils after a terrific season without Brodeur, but I guess even Brodeur couldnt prevent Gleason from making that amazing play to keep the puck alive in the final minutes of game 7.  I took New Jersey in this series, but I would still do the same pick, and don’t regret it.

Pittsburg Vs. Philidelpia

The best players in this series was Crosby and Malkin.  Another tough chapter in the battle of Pensylvania once again the Pens come out as victors.  I would have liked to see more of Gonchar in this series, not just Gonchar, but also all of the Pittsburg defense squad wasent too engaged in the series.  The Flyers put up a good fight but their highest paid player in Briere wasn’t anywhere to be found.  Also, nice to see Giroux stand up and show how good of a player he actually is. I called Pittsburg to win this series.

Round Two Predictions to come