Ottawa Senators Odds to Win 2012 Stanley Cup

The Senators did it.  They proved every single so called “hockey expert” wrong and made the NHL playoffs with 3 games to spare.  As we all know the Sens were predicted to finish last by most experts, including The Hockey News and were in the bottom five by 99% of analysts.  Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson lead the way this season, but bounce back years by veterans Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba and of course Daniel Alfredsson also played a huge role and provided the drive and leadership for the newer players on the team to follow.  I want to just say that Kuba has had an outstanding year.  He is often overshadowed by his d-partner Karlsson, but having a year like he has is quite remarkable, especially after Sens fans were calling for his head last season.  Kuba is the top non-Bruin in +/- at this point in the season with a +28, which is quite an improvement on his -26 last season!

Now that the Sens are there it’s time to assess their chances at putting it all together and winning the Stanley Cup.  What a story that would be.  Come from 30th on the power rankings entering the season to the Stanley Cup Champions.  I for one am not closing the door on this possibility.  Sportsbook 5Dimes.eu has the Senators at +4000 to win the Stanley Cup which is tied for 16th in the league along with the Coyotes (the Sabres and Capitals still have shorter odds than the Senators even though they haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot and the Stars are +4400 even while they are almost mathematically eliminated).  Bet365 is a little bit kinder having the Senators at +2800, which is better than the Sabres, Capitals and Panthers and equal to the Coyotes.  But if you want to bet on the Sens to win the Cup you should do so at 5Dimes.eu.

I agree that Ottawa is a huge long shot to win the Cup and if it all played out 40 times I would still likely be surprised if one of those times Alfredsson was receiving the Cup from Commissioner Bettman, but I do believe that have a better chance than many of the other teams in the hunt.

Bryan Murray said it earlier in the season that he was not ruling out a deep playoff run and he gave a great reason for this.  The puck moving ability of Ottawa’s d-men.  Erik Karlsson is the best combination of puck moving and skating for a d-man in the league as his regular season point total no doubt confirms.  Gonchar is no slouch either and I expect him to bring his game to another level in the playoffs.  Kuba is another player who can make that breakout pass and newly acquired Matt Gilroy has shown that he has the skating ability, now he just has to show some better decision making when it comes to jumping into the rush or trying to take on 3 opposition players rather than dumping and allowing his forwards to chase.  If the Senators plan to go far their defensemen need to be on top of their game and I believe that their top 5 are extremely solid and if Gilroy can play within himself the Sens 6 D could be the top in the league.

As for goal scoring that will surely fall to Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson, Kyle Turris and Nick Foligno.  These five players have to put the puck in the net for the Senators in order for the team to win games.  Jason Spezza will be a primary focus of opposition shutdown players, which means that Kyle Turris will have to step up and put up points for the Senators to win games.  In the first round Zdeno Chara will surely be matched up against Spezza and everyone knows that Chara is the best shutdown defenseman in the game.  I believe Spezza is shifty enough to matchup fairly well against Chara, but a lot of production responsibility will still fall to the Turris and Alfredsson line throughout the playoffs.

The Senators will be a tough out in this years playoffs if they can do the following things.

Senators Keys To Victory

• Karlsson, Spezza and Michalek continue production from regular season.
• Turris line steps up when Spezza line is shut down by superior defensemen.
• Gilroy plays within himself.
• Anderson gets hot.
• Less penalties than in regular season. (14.1 minutes per game – 2nd most in NHL)
• Power play has to start working again.

NHL Eastern Conference Division Winner Predictions

I find NHL futures predictions take the most skill to make because there is much less luck involved when the outcome is decided over a long period of time, in this case an 82 game series.  In this post I decided to incorporate the division winner odds I found at Bodog.com in order to make more sports betting predictions against the odds.  Luckily for me the team I thought would win the first two divisions happened to be the underdog anyways.  If you want to learn more about sports betting odds, click the link for a great site with tons of info.

Northeast Division

The Northeast division is in my opinion the tightest, most well rounded division in the NHL.  There are no great teams and if you take out the Maple Leafs there are no horrible teams.  This year I expect the Maple Leafs to do much better, which should increase the toughness of the Northeast Division.  Last year Buffalo came out of nowhere to win the division and this year they are the second most likeliest win according to oddsmakers.  In my opinion only Boston, Buffalo and Ottawa have any shot at taking home this division title.  Here are the odds:

Boston Bruins EV
Buffalo Sabres +275
Ottawa Senators +400
Montreal Canadiens +500
Toronto Maple Leafs +1500

With these odds I’m taking the Ottawa Senators any day.  The Sens should once again improve on a solid outting last year and compete throughout the season for the Northeast division title.  It will come down to the last few games between the top three teams, but I think Ottawa should have the depth to win the Northeast this year.

Atlantic Division

The Atlantic is another tough division to call with the Devils, Penguins and Flyers all be strong contenders within the division.  The Penguins and Flyers each have the talent and potential to win the division, but neither team has really strung together an entire 82 game season with consistency.  The Devils on the other hand seem to always overachieve when it comes to the regular season.  With the addition of Kovalchuk the Devils should be able to repeat as Atlantic division champs.  Here are the odds:

Pittsburgh Penguins -125
New Jersey Devils +175
Philadelphia Flyers +350
New York Rangers +1500
New York Islanders +2500

Southeast Division

The worst division in the NHL, now somehow contains the best regular season team in hockey.  The Washington Capitals have a star studded line-up that won the Presidents trophy last year and should be able to repeat as both the regular season league champ and easily the Southeast division champion.  The Tampa Bay Lightning are the only team in the division with an outside chance of taking the crown from the Caps and that’s only because we are currently unsure of how all of their offseason moves with translate onto the ice.  No matter what the odds you have to go with the Capitals because they will win this division 95% of the time!

Washington Capitals -400
Tampa Bay Lightning +700
Carolina Hurricanes +1200
Atlanta Thrashers +1500
Florida Panthers +2000

Bet on Round 2 of NHL Playoffs

All of the lines for round 2 of the NHL playoffs are in at Bookmaker.com.

The Blackhawks vs Canucks series that starts tonight is supposed to be a close one.  The odds are as follows:

Blackhawks +120
Canucks -140

Bet the Blackhawks here.  The Hawks have at least a 50% chance to win the series, so get your money in with the good odds and hope for the best.

Not surprisingly, the Ducks vs Red Wings series has the biggest spread.

Ducks +250
Red Wings -300

Don’t bet on this series. The odds are pretty dead on in my opinion and it would be negative expected value to bet on either team with those odds.

The Bruins vs Canes series is a much small spread on Bookmaker.com than I was expecting.

Hurricanes +185
Bruins -215

Bet the Bruins in this series. In my opinion this series is the most one sided and since it’s not the most one sided in terms of the betting you should take advantage and bet on the Bruins.  I would be very surprised if the Bruins don’t win and I think you are getting a very good return on this almost sure bet.

Of course the closest series price is the Crosby vs Ovechkin show.

Penguins +100
Capitals -120

Bet the Penguins in this series. I am very surprised that the Pens are labeled as the underdog by the sports books.  Most people I have talked to say the Pens are sure to win.  I’d give the Pens about 60% to win and this percentage makes taking the Penguins here a good bet.

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