NHL Playoff Predictions at the Two Thirds Mark

The NHL season is approximately 2/3′s of the way finished.  The two-thirds mark is actually about 54.5 games and looking at the standings today most teams are right around that number – some over some under, but close enough.  In this post I’m going to be giving my predictions of where teams will finish in their conference at the end of the regular season.  I’ll give a little snippit about my reasoning, but this is mostly just to put down my predictions.  Do with them what you will.

Eastern Conference

1. Philadelphia Flyers
2. Washington Capitals
3. Boston Bruins
4. Pittsburgh Penguins
5. Tampa Bay Lightning
6. Montreal Canadiens
7. Buffalo Sabres
   
8. Carolina Hurricanes
9. New York Rangers
10. Atlanta Thrashers
11. New Jersey Devils
12. Toronto Maple Leafs
13. Florida Panthers
14. New York Islanders
15. Ottawa Senators

What you might notice in this conference is how I have the Washington Capitals passing the Tampa Bay Lightning for the top spot in the Southeast Division.  The Caps are underachieving and I think the Lightning are overachieving at the moment.  The Capitals are a good team who should get a lot of wins down the stretch.

Another thing you may notice is the Buffalo Sabres finishing in 7th and making the playoffs.  This would have been absurd to think at the 1/3 mark, but they have been playing great and have a good enough team to pass the Rangers, Hurricanes and Thrashers down the stretch.  This left the Rangers and Thrashers out of the playoffs.

Finally, the Ottawa Senators will come last in the East and most likely last in the league.  The team will sell hard at the deadline and sputter down the stretch, but this will at least guarantee them a top 2 overall pick in the draft.

Western Conference

1. Vancouver Canucks
2. Detroit Red Wings
3. San Jose Sharks
4. Chicago Blackhawks
5. Nashville Predators
6. Anaheim Ducks
7. Minnesota Wild
8. Los Angeles Kings
9. Dallas Stars
10. Phoenix Coyotes
11. Colorado Avalanche
12. Calgary Flames
13. Columbus Blue Jackets
14. St. Louis Blues
15. Edmonton Oilers

The West is way more jam packed at the moment which allowed me to really do a lot with my predictions.  The first division winners shouldn’t be much of a surprise, with the only move being San Jose catching Dallas for the Pacific division championship.

Now let’s move into the surpises.  The Blackhawks are currently in 11th and I have them finishing in 4th.  The team is simply too good not to make the playoffs and the spread between 4th and 11th at the moment is only 6 points.  I expect the Blackhawks to start playing some playoff style hockey and to move up the standings.  They were the Cup favourites at the beginning of the season!

After that I see the Preds continuing to play streaky hockey and the wins they string together will be enough to get them into 5th spot.  After that the Ducks will move up from 7th to 6th and the Wild and Kings will take the playoff spots away from the Stars, Flames and Coyotes to secure the last two spots.  I’m a Havlat fan so that may be biased, but I truly believe they have a good enough team, especially with Zidlicky coming back and Backstrom playing grade A hockey.  The Kings will not allow themselves to miss playoffs and will squeek into 8th in order to give the ‘Nucks a tough first round matchup.  The only other small surprise is the Avs getting up to 11th with the help of Forsberg.  The spread from 4th to 12th will still be only around 6 points come playoff time, so the West will go right down to the wire!

This race will make for some great hockey betting online.  If NHL betting interests you make sure to check out a variety of sports betting sites in order to find the one that is best for you.  Look for things such as bonuses, deposit options, customer service, but above all else use a bookie that is trusted.

NHL Midseason Playoff Predictions

The playoff races are starting to heat up and I am beginning to lean certain ways as to which teams will end up playing for the Stanley Cup in May and June.  You may be surprised by some of my picks, but you may agree.  Anyways here we go:

Eastern Conference

The Shoe-ins

Washington Capitals, New Jersey Devils, Pittsburgh Penguins, Buffalo Sabres.
These teams would have to blow up and really drop to not end up in the post season.

The Last Four

Ottawa Senators, Philadelphia Flyers, Boston Bruins, Florida Panthers.

Ottawa has come on strong in the last few games and really seperated themselves from the pack in terms of qualifying for the playoffs.  Similarly the Flyers have remembered how to win and I would be very surprised if this preseason “cup contender” fails to make the playoffs in such a weak conference.  This same mentality is used for the Bruins who have been dropping of late, but I expect them to find their game and get some W’s in the win column soon.  My surprise pick here may be the Florida Panthers.  I basically used process of elimination to come to this pick and the play of Tomas Vokoun definitely helped.

I don’t feel the Canadiens are a good enough team to make the playoffs this year.  The return of Markov definitely helped them, but their lack of offense and lack of solid star power should keep them out of the playoffs.  Camalleri, Plekanec and Markov have to really step up and lead this team if they have any chance in my eyes.  The Rangers are similar in that they have no scoring.  It seems like Gaborik is in on 75% of the teams goals and they need some secondary scoring to start winning games again.  The Islanders have a chance, but for a team that was predicted to come last in the league I am really surprised they are in the hunt and will be extremely surprised if they make it.

Western Conference

Shoe-Ins

Chicago Blackhawks, San Jose Sharks

There are only two shoe-ins in the West and these teams are dominant.  We’ll have to see how they fare in the playoffs.

Remaining Six

Vancouver Canucks, Colorado Avalanche, Phoenix Coyotes, Detroit Red Wings, LA Kings, Minnesota Wild.

The Canucks are a great team, it just took them a while to get going this year.  They will be a Stanley Cup contender.  The Avs and Coyotes have taken the league by surprise this year and I am hopeful that both teams can keep it together and put up enough wins to make the playoffs.  Anderson and Bryzgalov have been great and if they can each keep up their stellar play the playoffs should be in the picture.  The Wings are starting to turn their year around as they continue to get healthier.  If you told me at the beginning of the year the Red Wings wouldn’t make the playoffs I would have laughed at you, and I still think I would laugh.  They are just too good to not even make the postseason.  Finally, my last two slots go to the Kings and the Wild.  The Kings are a great young team and I believe that they can hold on to one of those playoff teams with a big W streak at some point before the 82 game mark.  The Wild are my favourite Western team so there may be some bias in this prediction, but I really like their team and I think they have the character to put up a strong end to the season and slip in.

You can check out the NHL futures odds at NHL Betting Tips to see if you can make some big cash off of your favourite teams.  The basketball season is also coming to a close so I’d suggest checking out the NBA odds for the playoffs or the NBA betting lines for each game to see who has the best chance to take down the NBA championships this season.

Teams Cannot Afford to Fall Behind in New NHL

It is still very early in the NHL regular season, but teams that are falling behind now are quickly putting themselves out of playoff contention.  With the parody in the league these days and the extra overtime/shootout points teams that fall behind early in the season really put themselves up against the wall in terms of coming from behind and grabbing a playoff spot.  I saw it last year with my Ottawa Senators.  The Sens started off slow and then they were fighting a losing battle all year long.  Even a huge three week span to start March where the Sens earned 18 of a possible 22 points didn’t event put the Senators within a reasonable striking distance of a playoff birth.  I’m writing this article because I keep hearing fans of teams low in the standings talking about how their team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  It’s getting to that time of year where teams are already finding themselves out of the hunt.

Take the Toronto Maple Leafs for example.  Leaf fans are the worst.  Most of them probably still think their team is going to win the Stanley Cup this year.  The will say things like, “we are just 7 points out of the playoffs.  That’s just four wins.”  But the truth is that’s four wins for the Leafs, four losses for the 8th place team, three losses for the ninth, tenth and eleventh place teams, and two losses for the 12th placed team.  That equals out to 19 games having to go as planned, and a lot of the time that’s just not possible because these teams that have to lose will likely be playing each other.  Not to mention that these losses have to be in regulation.  The extra point makes it even more difficult for teams to come from behind to make playoffs because even when teams ahead of them are losing they will still be receiving a single point many of these times.

Let’s look at this logically.  I think even fans making these outrageous NHL predictions in favour of their favourite team can agree that a playoff team needs 90 points at an absolute minimum.  The average of the two 8th placed teams last season was 92 so we will use that number to make our following calculations.  The Maple Leafs currently have 25 points in 29 games.  This means that they need to earn, at an absolute minimum, 67 points in their remaining 53 games.  That is an average of 1.265 points per game.  So far this season, only the top 6 teams in the league have a point % greater than 1.265.  To put it into perspective at an absolute minimum, the Leafs would have to win about 31 of their last 53 games, lose 17 in regulation and lose 5 in OT/SO.  Does anyone really think the Maple Leafs can be a top 6 NHL team for the last two-thirds of the season?  I certainly don’t.

Once a team falls behind in this new NHL where the teams are all very equal and many games award the loser a point it is very difficult to make up any ground.  The games at this time of year are extremely important, so if your team is starting to fall off the pace, I advise you to treat every game like it’s the playoffs and watch it intently.

Bet on Round 2 of NHL Playoffs

All of the lines for round 2 of the NHL playoffs are in at Bookmaker.com.

The Blackhawks vs Canucks series that starts tonight is supposed to be a close one.  The odds are as follows:

Blackhawks +120
Canucks -140

Bet the Blackhawks here.  The Hawks have at least a 50% chance to win the series, so get your money in with the good odds and hope for the best.

Not surprisingly, the Ducks vs Red Wings series has the biggest spread.

Ducks +250
Red Wings -300

Don’t bet on this series. The odds are pretty dead on in my opinion and it would be negative expected value to bet on either team with those odds.

The Bruins vs Canes series is a much small spread on Bookmaker.com than I was expecting.

Hurricanes +185
Bruins -215

Bet the Bruins in this series. In my opinion this series is the most one sided and since it’s not the most one sided in terms of the betting you should take advantage and bet on the Bruins.  I would be very surprised if the Bruins don’t win and I think you are getting a very good return on this almost sure bet.

Of course the closest series price is the Crosby vs Ovechkin show.

Penguins +100
Capitals -120

Bet the Penguins in this series. I am very surprised that the Pens are labeled as the underdog by the sports books.  Most people I have talked to say the Pens are sure to win.  I’d give the Pens about 60% to win and this percentage makes taking the Penguins here a good bet.

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