NHL 11-12 Standings Using a 3-Point System

For the past few of years I have made a post showing what the NHL standings for that season would have looked like using a true 3-point system.  For those of you who don’t know this system involves every game awarding 3 points, rather than just games that go to overtime.  This means that wins are worth 3 points, overtime/shootout wins are worth 2 and overtime/shootout losses are worth 1.  I personally think that awarding 3 games in some games rather than others is completely ridiculous and goes against the integrity and fairness of the sport.  The 3-point system is an easy and obvious alternative.

I’ve gone into more detail about why the 3-point system is an obvious choice for the NHL so I won’t get into all of the reasons again.  Instead you can click here to read that post.

Basically the just of it is that the NHL is rewarding teams for going to overtime.  This creates teams playing for a tie in regulation and sitting back with 5 minutes left to go in order to guarantee a point, especially against out of Conference teams.  This ends up resulting in lower scoring games because just looking at simple math a team that plays in lower scoring games will end up with more regulation ties than a team who plays a higher scoring style (if a team averages 2 goals for and 2 against a game they will be in more ties than a team that averages 3 goals for and against).  Basically the current system goes against everything that the GM’s say they want in the game (more scoring and competitiveness) just because they want the standings to “appear” to be tighter so that fans get the impression their team is better than they are.  A GM or coach can say their team is a .500 club when they are 20-20-15, when in reality they are a horrible team at that record.  The NHL seriously needs to look at this and keep the competitiveness and fairness in the game so that the best teams make the playoffs.

Luckily this year the 3-point system wouldn’t have had too much of an affect on which teams made the playoffs, but the seedings would have been slightly different and a different team would have won the president’s trophy.  Let’s take a look.

Eastern Conference

Regular Standings vs 3-point System Standings

		Regulation Wins	OT/SO Wins	OT/SO Losses	Losses	Total Points
1	NY Rangers	39	12	7	24	148
2	Boston	38	11	4	29	140
3	Florida	31	7	18	26	125
4	Pittsburgh	40	11	6	25	148
5	Philadelphia	37	10	9	26	140
6	New Jersey	32	16	6	28	134
7	Washington	31	11	8	32	123
8	Ottawa	30	11	10	31	122
9	Buffalo	27	12	11	32	116
10	Winnipeg	27	10	10	35	111
11	Carolina	29	4	16	33	111
12	Tampa Bay	25	13	8	36	109
13	Toronto	26	9	10	37	106
14	NY Islanders	24	10	11	37	103
15	Montreal	24	7	16	35	102

As you can see the only change in the Eastern Conference would have been the Tamp Bay Lightning dropping 2 places to 12th in the East, which would have bumped the Jets and Hurricanes each up one spot.  This is primarily because of the number of Lightning overtime/shootout wins in the regular season.  The Playoff match-ups would have remained the same in the East which is quite rare.

Western Conference

Regular Standings vs 3-point System Standings

		Regulation Wins	OT/SO Wins	OT/SO Losses	Losses	Total Points
1	St Louis	42	7	11	22	151
2	Vancouver	36	15	9	22	147
3	Phoenix	35	9	13	27	136
4	Nashville	40	8	8	26	144
5	Detroit	36	12	6	28	138
6	Chicago	34	11	11	26	135
7	San Jose	31	12	10	29	127
8	Los Angeles	31	9	15	27	126
9	Calgary	32	5	16	29	122
10	Dallas	31	11	5	35	120
11	Colorado	25	16	6	35	113
12	Anaheim	29	5	12	36	109
13	Minnesota	22	13	11	36	103
14	Edmonton	25	7	10	40	99
15	Columbus	23	6	7	46	88

In the Western Conference there was one change in the playoff positionings and it would have turned out to be quite a significant change because the St Louis Blues would have moved to first place in the Western Conference and in the league, which would have won the Blues the President’s Trophy and a different first round matchup. Who knows if the Blues would have been able to handle the Kings or if the Canucks would have had an easier time with the Sharks.

The only other change was Anaheim moving ahead of Minnesota by a significant margin due to the vast number of overtime/shootout wins by the Wild.

This year the changes in the standings weren’t drastic, but other years they have determined whether a team makes or misses the playoffs.  The NHL really needs to take a look at this 3-point system and give it serious consideration.

Written by: Niko de Jonge

Ottawa Senators Odds to Win 2012 Stanley Cup

The Senators did it.  They proved every single so called “hockey expert” wrong and made the NHL playoffs with 3 games to spare.  As we all know the Sens were predicted to finish last by most experts, including The Hockey News and were in the bottom five by 99% of analysts.  Jason Spezza, Erik Karlsson and Craig Anderson lead the way this season, but bounce back years by veterans Sergei Gonchar, Chris Phillips, Milan Michalek, Filip Kuba and of course Daniel Alfredsson also played a huge role and provided the drive and leadership for the newer players on the team to follow.  I want to just say that Kuba has had an outstanding year.  He is often overshadowed by his d-partner Karlsson, but having a year like he has is quite remarkable, especially after Sens fans were calling for his head last season.  Kuba is the top non-Bruin in +/- at this point in the season with a +28, which is quite an improvement on his -26 last season!

Now that the Sens are there it’s time to assess their chances at putting it all together and winning the Stanley Cup.  What a story that would be.  Come from 30th on the power rankings entering the season to the Stanley Cup Champions.  I for one am not closing the door on this possibility.  Sportsbook 5Dimes.eu has the Senators at +4000 to win the Stanley Cup which is tied for 16th in the league along with the Coyotes (the Sabres and Capitals still have shorter odds than the Senators even though they haven’t yet clinched a playoff spot and the Stars are +4400 even while they are almost mathematically eliminated).  Bet365 is a little bit kinder having the Senators at +2800, which is better than the Sabres, Capitals and Panthers and equal to the Coyotes.  But if you want to bet on the Sens to win the Cup you should do so at 5Dimes.eu.

I agree that Ottawa is a huge long shot to win the Cup and if it all played out 40 times I would still likely be surprised if one of those times Alfredsson was receiving the Cup from Commissioner Bettman, but I do believe that have a better chance than many of the other teams in the hunt.

Bryan Murray said it earlier in the season that he was not ruling out a deep playoff run and he gave a great reason for this.  The puck moving ability of Ottawa’s d-men.  Erik Karlsson is the best combination of puck moving and skating for a d-man in the league as his regular season point total no doubt confirms.  Gonchar is no slouch either and I expect him to bring his game to another level in the playoffs.  Kuba is another player who can make that breakout pass and newly acquired Matt Gilroy has shown that he has the skating ability, now he just has to show some better decision making when it comes to jumping into the rush or trying to take on 3 opposition players rather than dumping and allowing his forwards to chase.  If the Senators plan to go far their defensemen need to be on top of their game and I believe that their top 5 are extremely solid and if Gilroy can play within himself the Sens 6 D could be the top in the league.

As for goal scoring that will surely fall to Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Daniel Alfredsson, Kyle Turris and Nick Foligno.  These five players have to put the puck in the net for the Senators in order for the team to win games.  Jason Spezza will be a primary focus of opposition shutdown players, which means that Kyle Turris will have to step up and put up points for the Senators to win games.  In the first round Zdeno Chara will surely be matched up against Spezza and everyone knows that Chara is the best shutdown defenseman in the game.  I believe Spezza is shifty enough to matchup fairly well against Chara, but a lot of production responsibility will still fall to the Turris and Alfredsson line throughout the playoffs.

The Senators will be a tough out in this years playoffs if they can do the following things.

Senators Keys To Victory

• Karlsson, Spezza and Michalek continue production from regular season.
• Turris line steps up when Spezza line is shut down by superior defensemen.
• Gilroy plays within himself.
• Anderson gets hot.
• Less penalties than in regular season. (14.1 minutes per game – 2nd most in NHL)
• Power play has to start working again.

Canadian Sports Lottery Betting Revisited

If you read my other post asking why NHL fans bet on Proline you will already know my position on the matter.  The simple fact is that Proline odds are far worse than the odds you will find at an online sportsbook and for this reason nobody in their right mind would be on Proline when they can easily set up an online sportsbook account.

When I talk about an online sportsbook I do not mean one of the other government run sports lotteries like Sports Action out West or Proline Stadium in the Maritimes, but a real online sportsbook with no government affiliation such as SportsInteraction.com, a great sportsbook for Canadian sports fans.  I was looking at the odds of a couple of these government run sports lotteries (Sports Action and Proline) and wanted to share with you my findings compared to Sports Interaction.

Examples

Tonight there are 6 games in the NHL so let’s make this easy and select all of the away teams in our 6 team parlay.  This means tonight we will be taking the Devils, Blackhawks, Rangers, Wild, Stars and Flames.  Here are the odds at each of the various Canadian sports lotteries in that order, with a $10 risk associated.

Sports Action: (1.90 x 1.90 x 1.60 x 3.00 x 1.85 x 2.15) x $10 = $689.20
Proline: (1.90 x 2.00 x 1.50 x 3.00 x 1.60 x 2.10) x $10 = $574.60

Sports Interaction: (2.10 x 2.15 x 1.69 x 3.30 x 1.87 x 2.50) x $10 = $1176.66

As you can see the people gambling on Sports Action out West are getting slightly better odds than the Proline bettors in Ontario, but neither comes close to the potential payout from Sports Interaction.  If you bet through a Canadian sports lottery you are leaving money on the table.

There are no Sports Action or Proline tips or strategies that will enable you to win with such poor odds.  Even if you are the best Proline prediction guy in the world you are wasting your talents betting through a program that does not offer the best odds.

Conclusion

All Canadian sports lotteries provide remarkably horrible odds for their players.  Proline is basically a tax for stupid sports fans that are ignorant about the extra money they would be making betting online.  This doesn`t even factor in the sign up bonuses and promotions that you receive online at a site like Sports Interaction.  If you are Canadian I highly recommend signing up at SportsInteraction.com for your NHL betting needs.

My other site, NHLBettingTips.com will hopefully be offering a NHL playoff bracket competition and also a free no strings attached $20 bet at Sports Interaction come the playoffs.  Stay tuned for more information on that.

Why Do NHL Fans Bet On Proline?

It amazes me every time I look at the PROLINE odds when I’m at my local convenient store.  As you may know, I am an avid online sports bettor and actually have an NHL betting tips website where I post my predictions daily.  So when I see how horrible the odds are at PROLINE it really starts to make me angry as I think of all the suckers out there that the Ontario government is basically taking advantage of.

For those of you who don’t know, PROLINE is a betting game run by the Ontario provincial government.  It actually classified a “sports lottery” and bettors are only able to make parlay bets of between 3 and 6 selections.  I assume this it to make it more lottery-esque, but also to give the appearance of the possibility of big wins.

Anyways, when I was writing my predictions for my NHL predictions site today I chose 4 teams that I thought would win tonight and found their odds at two of my favourite sportsbooks, 5Dimes.com and Sports Interaction.  I included these odds with my write-up so that my visitors would know the odds I am betting at.  Then, just for fun I went to the PROLINE website and checked the payout of a 4 team parlay using the same four selections to see the difference in price.  Here is what I found:

Payout at Online Sportsbooks with 4 team Parlay

Predators 2.20
Lightning 1.746
Oilers 2.55
Canucks 1.80

With a $20 wager the payout online would be (2.20 x 1.746 x 2.55 x 1.80 x 20) $352.62.  A very healthy payout for four games that I believe will have these outcomes.  Now look at the PROLINE payout….

Payout at PROLINE with 4 team Parlay

Predators 2.10
Lightning 1.40
Oilers 2.20
Canucks 1.60

With a $20 wager the payout at PROLINE would be (2.10 x 1.40 x 2.20 x 1.60 x 20) $206.98 with the same picks on PROLINE.  So with a $20 wager on this 4 team NHL parlay bet you would make $145 more betting online!

But wait there’s more! Not only is the payout almost double at an online sportsbook than with PROLINE, but if any of your teams win in a shootout then the PROLINE ticket is a loser, while your online sportsbook parlay bet is still a winner.  That’s right, if any game goes to a shootout then it is considered a “draw” in the eyes of PROLINE.

So Why Do NHL Fans Bet On Proline?

The only reason I can come up with is they are simply ignorant to just how awful the PROLINE odds are and how much more money they could be making online.  Either that or they want to be ignorant and not actually know how much money they waste betting on PROLINE every year.  I just want to be able to shake everyone who bets on PROLINE and tell them there’s a better way.  A better way then paying yet another “ignorance” tax to the Ontario Government.

You can sign up at SportsInteraction.com and actually earn a profit, or at the very least lose less money than you do at PROLINE.  Plus you get all the perks that  come with an online sports betting account.  The sign up bonus ($125 at SportsInteraction.com), the promotions, the wide selection of odds, the convenience of not having to go to your local convenience store to get your winnings, not having to worry about where you left your winning ticket and much, much more.

This post was made to try to educate Canadians about PROLINE and that there is a much better option.  Visit SportsInteraction.com to set up an account today and start actually having a chance to profit betting on the NHL.

What Are The Ottawa Senators Playoff Chances At The Midway Point?

As we all know the Senators were ranked 30th in the league in almost any “power rankings” article or list you read prior to the season starting.  Then the Senators came out of the gate and went 1-5-0 in their first six games and all the so called “experts” were saying we told you so and Senators fans were bracing themselves for a long season.  Since then the Sens have gone 20-10-5 and currently sit in 5th position in the Eastern Conference with 47 points in 41 games.  The position might not be as accurate as it seems however, because the Senators have played more games than any other team in the East, but if you look at points per game played they are still slotted in at the 7th position (Penguins and Capitals jump ahead).  If the season ended today and every team went by points per game played the Senators would be facing the New York Rangers in the first round of the playoffs.

Can They Keep It Up?

If the Senators can do the exact same in the second half of the season they would finish with 94 points, which would surely earn them a playoff spot.  Last season 94 points would have resulted in an 8th place finish, while the year before it would have resulted in a 5th place finish (which just so happened to be where the Sens finished that season with exactly 94 points).

So the question becomes can they do at least the same in the second half.  In my opinion, yes and possibly even better.  As mentioned earlier the Sens got off to a horrible start and that likely will not happen in this second half, which means they will not have to be “catching up” the entire time.

The Kyle Turris trade filled a whole that was created when Regin was injured and so far Turris has looked fairly good and I only expect him to get better as his confidence builds (his beauty tip goal last night should help this).  In net Anderson has been playing tremendously, but the team does need Auld to win a game here and there to give Anderson some time off now and then.

The third and fourth line players on the Senators have been over performing compared to preseason analysis, which is a big reason the Sens have been playing so well and I don’t see this slowing down anytime soon.  Eric Condra and Zack Smith are two great penalty killers with offensive upside, each of whom are big +’s on the team.  Another big surprise would have to be the play of Jared Cowen who could easily be in a competition with Karlsson as the team’s top d-man.  The two compliment each other so well and they should be a great tandem on the back end for the Senators moving forward.

Do The Sens Have A Chance at the Stanley Cup?

The oddsmakers still do not believe in the Senators this season.  Sportsbook 5Dimes.com has the Senators at +10,000 odds to win the Cup, which is only better than 6 other teams.  Even teams that are almost out of the playoff hunt such as the Montreal Canadiens and Tampa Bay Lightning have shorter odds.  If you do want to place a bet at 5Dimes, make sure you use a 5Dimes marketing code to get the best bonus possible.

In my opinion the Senators don’t have a great shot at the Stanley Cup this year, but nothing is out of the question.  Craig Anderson could stand on his head and the team has the offensive fire power and experience to make something happen if they do make the playoffs.  The big bad Bruins would be extremely hard to beat however.

NHL Conference Realignment Pros and Cons

Huge news in the hockey world last night as the Board of Governors met and agreed on a new conference realignment in the NHL.  The realignment removes the current 2-conferences, 6-division format and replaces it with an entirely new 4-conference format.  Two of the conferences have 8 teams, while 2 have 7 teams.  The top 4 teams in each conference will make the playoffs and the first two rounds of the playoffs will be inter-conference, with a Conference Champion being crowned after the 2 rounds.  This change is quite dramatic, so let’s take a look at some of the positive and negative ways it will affect the NHL:

PROS

Home and Away With All Teams – This is a definite pro for the league and the fans.  With the new alignment every team will play home and away against every other team in the NHL.  This will allow fans in every NHL city to have Sidney Crosby or Steven Stamkos come to their city to play hockey.

New Conference Rivalries Will Form – At the current time the divisions each contain 5 teams.  Teams play against their divisional foes 6 times per year.  With the current alignment this means that each team has 4 teams that they play often and can build rivalries against.  However, once the playoffs come the teams can play anyone from their Conference.  With the new alignment teams will play a greater number of teams a greater number of times.  By that I mean in the 7-team Conferences teams will play 6 different teams 6 times, which adds 2 more teams that can be regular season rivals.  Also, in the playoffs teams will often face each other year after year, which should build hate and result in more heated first and second round series between teams that despise each other.

Time Zones – Current Western Conference teams that are in the eastern end of the continent (Detroit, Minnesota, Dallas) have problems with time zones with regard to their away games.  Dallas even has to play divisional games in time zones that are 2 hours different.  This new format should allow teams to play more games closer to their home city, which will result in less time zone problems.  This also means that fans out West won’t have to place as many mobile sports bets because they are still at work when their team starts playing as often.

Relocation Much Easier – This isn’t a big plus, but if teams move it is much easier to adjust a four-conference system than the current 6 division system with 2 conferences.  For example, if Phoenix does end up moving to eastern Canada, that team could just be added to one of the 7-team conferences and there would be no hassle.

CONS

Travel – Teams will likely have more travel with the new alignment because they will be heading to every other NHL city each season.  That being said the new alignment might allow for schedule makers to schedule road trips for teams where they can hit cities on the way, which should help battle the travel expense problem.

Best Teams Don’t Make Playoffs – With the new alignment the LA Kings would have missed the playoffs last year even though they had more points than the Stars.  This will be a regular occurrence when certain divisions are superior to others.

Playoff Races Aren’t As Exciting – Last season the playoff races in both Conferences were very exciting, but if you look at how the races would have played out in the new 4-conference format it becomes much less interesting.  The playoff races are the second most exciting time of the NHL season, next to the playoffs and the races in the new alignment won’t be nearly as exciting.

Care About Less Teams – I’m a fan of the Ottawa Senators and at the moment I care about how every team in the Eastern Conference does because it affects the Sens chances of making the playoffs.  With the new alignment I will only care about the 6 other teams in their Conference, which will make things somewhat less interesting for fans.

Underrated and Overrated NHL Teams

If you read this blog often then you probably know I’m an avid NHL bettor who does fairly well (I’ve been on a cold streak lately, but still up on the season).  One of the best ways to make money betting on NHL games is to wager on teams that are underrated in the eyes of the public and the bookmakers.  If you followed my NHL betting site you would notice I wager on the same teams very often and against the same teams very often.  That’s because my views of NHL teams differ from the publics views and if my views are more correct then I will be winning more money than I lose online.  Here are a few teams that I find underrated or overrated at the moment.

Underrated – Ottawa Senators

The Senators were ranked 30th on almost every power ranking that you could find prior to the season.  They are now around 22 or so on most, but when looking at the odds you will still notice that the Senators are almost always the underdogs because they public and the bookmakers still don’t believe in the team.  Just today the Senators at home was a pick’em game against at Lightning team that is 4-8-2 on the road and on a 3 game losing streak.

Underrated – St. Louis Blues

The Blues have been great since changing coaches this season and they have the personnel to continue to perform.  The odds haven’t quite caught up to their recent success, so you can still find some great odds for the Blues.  I expect the Blues to make the playoffs and put up a good showing once there.

Overrated – Colorado Avalanche

The Avs are the worst team in the league according to me.  They are on a 3 game winning streak right now, but I have made a lot of money betting against the Avs this year.  I haven’t bet against them recently because the odds had caught up with them when they were playing so poorly, but now that they have won some games I expect some sharp bets against the Avs in the future.

Overrated – Winnipeg Jets

The Jets are another team that I generally don’t like to bet on.  I see the Jets as a bottom 3 team in the Eastern Conference, but with all of the press surrounding the team this season it seems like they are favourites or considered contenders in games when they really shouldn’t be.  In fact, last Tuesday the Jets were hosting the Senators and even though I was out of town the odds were so good that I went online to one of my favourite iphone betting sites and placed a bet on the Senators at +110 to defeat the Jets.

The teams that are underrated and overrated can change quickly throughout the season and as an NHL bettor you have to be ready to change with them.  The NHL is a very streaky league, especially for young teams and one thing that I take into account when placing my bets is a teams current streak and how they are playing heading into the game.  Overrated/underrated views is just one ingredient to use when placing NHL bets.

Thoughts and Surprises One Month Into The NHL Season

I haven’t made a post in a while, but that’s not to say I haven’t been following the NHL season this year.  I’ve been a little bit busy with some other NHL related sites so I haven’t had the chance to post here at Hockey Opinions as much as I would like.  That being said my main NHL site NHL Betting Tips is doing really well mainly because my daily NHL predictions have been on fire, at least for the past two weeks.  I’m currently up over 10 units on the season and I suggest anyone who is interested in betting on hockey follow my plays because I’m on a heater at the moment.

The first month has been very eventful with a lot of surprises in the NHL.

Ottawa Senators Surprise October

Everyone had the Sens pegged in as #30 in the preseason power rankings and in the first 6 games all of these so called “experts” were patting themselves on the backs saying “I told you so” and “I’m a genius”.  Being a Sens fan it made me a little sick to see everyone telling me that they were going to be one of the worst teams in NHL history, that they expected them to get the fewest points of any team since the lockout.  Ridiculous comments and I knew better, but I still wanted my Sens to step up and deliver.  Lucky for me it happened and the Senators pulled off a 6 game winning streak to finish the month with a (7-5-0) record for 4th in the Eastern Conference.  They even topped it off with a win over the rival Leafs.  The Senators have been preaching “compete” throughout the winning streak and they did just that.  Their methods of victory were almost more impressive than the actual results.  Of their 7 win this season 3 came in shootouts (2 as the result of epic 3rd period comebacks) and 2 came within the last 5 seconds of regulation to not allow their opponents a point.  In the Columbus game they were down by a goal with 40 seconds left before scoring 2 in regulation to keep the Blue Jackets without a win.  It’s been epic and everyone is stepping up including Gonchar and Kuba who were horrible last season.  It will be interesting to see how November shapes up.  They lost their first one against the Bruins, but here is hoping they bounce back.

Colorado Avalanche Surprise October

I was chirping experts for having the Sens as 30th on the power rankings so now is when I have to swallow my pride and admit that I had the Avs as 30th and they proved me wrong in October.  The Avalanche finished the month with a 7-4-0 record that included a 5 game win streak that had them sitting at 5-1-0 after 6 games.  A big thanks has to go to Semyon Varlamov who is 5-3-0 with a .924 save percentage and a shutout.  I thought it was one of the dumbest trades in history to trade for Varlamov and his nearly $3,000,000 contract for a first and second round pick when he has never even been a legit starter in the NHL.  Not to mention that I thought the pick would at least be a lottery after the way the Avs finished last year.  So far so good though for Varly and the Avs, but I have to say I still have my doubts and I expect them to plummet at some point soon.

Boston Bruins Surprise October

Who would have thought the defending Stanley Cup Champions would be in 2nd last place in the league after October with a 3-7-0 record.  I for one did not, but that’s where the defending champs found themselves.  That being said the Bruins were losing tight games, are in the top 5 in shots per game and the top half in shots against per game.  The Bruins beat the Sens to start out November the way they wanted, but they do have some catching up to do, which is hard in this league, even only after 1 month.

Those are my thoughts on a few surprises from the first month of the NHL season.  I am going to be continuing to put up my NHL predictions at NHLBettingTips.com so check out the site daily if you like to bet on hockey!

How Will the Ottawa Senators Do This Season?

Most so called “experts” have the Senators finishing near the basement of the Eastern Conference, and even the league.  Even NHL12 has the Sens as clearly the worst team in the league in terms of team stats (which is a real bummer because it makes it much more difficult for me to play with my team) – that’s right the Sens are my team so take this article with a grain of salt.  Personally, I think the Sens have a legit shot to battle for a playoff position until the end of the year.  I have them slotted in around 8th – 10th in terms of the Eastern Conference power rankings, and as you can see, that 8th place is in there so they have a shot at the playoffs.

Here Is Why

The Senators top 7 defencemen are actually very solid and I wouldn’t trade them for the top 7 d-men on at least 20 other teams in the league.  You have Erik Karlsson, a young guy with about as much playmaking talent as a d-man could have.  He will make sure that the Sens score powerplay goals and you can expect his plus-minus to be much better this year, as his defensive game improves.  Add in Sergei Gonchar, who we all know can be a top guy on any team if he plays like he has throughout his career and the Sens powerplays should have two legitimate quarterbacks.  Then you have Chris Phillips who has been a top shutdown guy his entire year and who anchored his team to the cup finals only a few years ago.  Alright, I don’t like Filip Kuba, but that is the only slot in the top 7 I’m not fond of.  Matt Carkner is the perfect 6th d-man on a team, with a toughness and presence that can help against rough opposition, and then you have two rookies who are ready for the big time.  David Rundblad was the Swedish Elite League’s top d-man last season and you can tell by watching him play that he will be another great puck mover from the back-end and he is a 3rd legit powerplay quarterback.  Then Jared Cowen, who is showing shades of Tyler Myers, is another big guy who can shutdown down low and has already showed he has the ability to provide offense with his two goals in the first preseason game.  The Sens are fine at the back end and they will get the puck to their forwards.

The goaltending situation is also solved.  Craig Anderson slipped a little at the start of last season, but the Avs are a worse team than the Sens and he showed in his games with the Senators he still has what it takes.  Anderson is a legitimate number 1 goaltender who has the ability to steal games, a few of which will be needed for the Senators to make the playoffs this season.

The Problem

The problem lies in the forwards.  Spezza can’t do it all.  Alfredsson and Michalek need to play at their best and then other goals have to come from the likes of Foligno, Butler, Regin and hopefully Filatov.  A few of these lesser known Senators will break out this year with the absence of Fisher and Kelly, but this is necessary for the team to win games.  I hope that GM Brian Murray doesn’t just keep Greening and Condra at the big club because he signed them to one-way contracts even if guys like Da Costa, Filatov, etc are more deserving and are better pieces to the puzzle.  The Senators need goals from up front.  Spezza and Alffy can’t do it all.

I think the Senators will surprise some people this year.  They have nothing to lose, with a young team that is eager to win and many players that know how to win from their Binghamton Calder Cup last season.  I for one am going to check out some sports gambling sites and hopefully find some great odds for the Senators throughout the season, due to the fact they are being underestimated by the masses.

Shea Weber’s Arbitration Decision Right On The Money

Shea Weber and the Nashville Predators couldn’t have been further away heading into Tuesday’s arbitration hearing.  Sources said that Nashville was offering around $4.75 million per season, while Weber was asking for $8.5 million.  As it turned out Weber’s request was much closer to what the arbitration hearing decided Weber was worth when he was given $7.5 million for the season.  Since this was a team-appointed arbitration hearing (which can only be done once in a players career), the Predators didn’t have a choice to walk away from the contract and make Weber a free agent.  That being said there was no real chance that the Predators would have walked away from such an elite player and the captain of their team.  Even if the owners decided they couldn’t afford to keep Weber, I can think of 29 other teams in the NHL that would be chopping at the bit to get Weber on the team, and these 29 teams would have happily paid the $7.5 million contract, while also giving Nashville many assets in return.

Weber Deserves His $7.5 Million

With this 1 year, $7.5 million contract Weber has become the highest paid defenseman in the National Hockey League.  As for the people who think that the highest paid defenseman should be the best, that theory is flawed because there are many things to consider.  First of all, when the other d-men earned their contract (their season(s) leading into that contract and the salary cap at the time).  And second of all, the length and situation of the contract.

Shea Weber

Last season, Weber had 16 goals and 48 points with a +7 rating and was a finalist for the Norris trophy, coming 2nd in voting, just 9 points back of Nicklas Lidstrom.  This Norris candidacy shows that Weber does more on the ice than just put up points, he is an all around defenseman that usually matches up against the top players on opposing teams.  Since the 06-07 season, Weber is tied with Mike Green for the most defenseman goals.  Weber was also a key player in helping Nashville make it to the second round for the first time in team history, he scored 5 points and was a +3 in 12 games.

Weber earned $7.5 million for 1 season.  Salary Cap $64.3 million.

Dion Phaneuf

Phaneuf scored 60 points, including 17 goals and had a +12 rating the season before his contract, which began in the 08-09 season.  Phaneuf also had 7 points in 7 playoff games and was a -2, but the Flames lost in the first round.  Phaneuf was a very similar player to Weber, but he did score a few more points, and he was also a runner up for the Norris, just like Weber.  One year contracts are usually more lucrative for the player because there is no job security and the cap hit percentage of 11.66% of the cap, is very close to the 11.46% percentage of the cap that Phaneuf’s salary demanded that year.

Phaneuf earned a cap hit of $6.5 million for 6 seasons.  Salary Cap $56.7 million.

Zdeno Chara

Chara signed a contract prior to this season that holds a $6.917 million cap hit with a 7 year length.  That being said Chara earns $8.5 million this year and the final 2 years of his contract only earn him $9 million total, which shows that this is another one of the front heavy contracts that have become popular in the NHL.  Chara is currently 34, so this contract brings him to his 41st birthday.  There is a good chance that Chara doesn’t play the final two years of his contract, which is probably why the amount is lower.  With this theory (if Chara does not play the final 2 years of his contract), he is earning $7.3 million per season, which is very close to what Weber earned.  Add in the job security Chara receives by signing long term and I would say Weber would have much preferred the contract that Chara received.  Chara is also a very good comparison, because he was also a Norris trophy candidate and his contract begins the same year as Weber’s.

Weber’s cap hit is the highest in the league, but it’s hard to look at just the cap hit nowadays when so many teams are doing the front heavy contracts.  Weber is actually the fifth highest paid defenseman this season, behind Chara ($8.5 million that we mentioned before), Pronger ($7.6 million), Keith ($8 million) and Ehrhoff ($10 million this season with a $4 million cap hit – don’t know how teams get away with this).

Weber is worth every penny and when you include the variables such as the length (1 year means no job security), the salary cap (cap increased $4.9 million over just last season) and the other comparable players front heavy contracts you can see that Weber could have easily justified the $8.5 million that he was asking.

It will be interesting to see how the Nashville Predators do next year.  I’m not going to go and put down $100 on them winning the cup, but with Weber in place they could definitely win a lot of games and once again return to the playoffs.  A new betting tool that will be fun to try next season is live hockey betting.  When you’re watching a hockey game you can see the momentum swings, as well as key injuries or anything that could affect how the game may turn out.  Now with in play hockey betting you can use this information to make a profit!

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