Teams Cannot Afford to Fall Behind in New NHL

It is still very early in the NHL regular season, but teams that are falling behind now are quickly putting themselves out of playoff contention.  With the parody in the league these days and the extra overtime/shootout points teams that fall behind early in the season really put themselves up against the wall in terms of coming from behind and grabbing a playoff spot.  I saw it last year with my Ottawa Senators.  The Sens started off slow and then they were fighting a losing battle all year long.  Even a huge three week span to start March where the Sens earned 18 of a possible 22 points didn’t event put the Senators within a reasonable striking distance of a playoff birth.  I’m writing this article because I keep hearing fans of teams low in the standings talking about how their team has a legitimate shot at the playoffs.  It’s getting to that time of year where teams are already finding themselves out of the hunt.

Take the Toronto Maple Leafs for example.  Leaf fans are the worst.  Most of them probably still think their team is going to win the Stanley Cup this year.  The will say things like, “we are just 7 points out of the playoffs.  That’s just four wins.”  But the truth is that’s four wins for the Leafs, four losses for the 8th place team, three losses for the ninth, tenth and eleventh place teams, and two losses for the 12th placed team.  That equals out to 19 games having to go as planned, and a lot of the time that’s just not possible because these teams that have to lose will likely be playing each other.  Not to mention that these losses have to be in regulation.  The extra point makes it even more difficult for teams to come from behind to make playoffs because even when teams ahead of them are losing they will still be receiving a single point many of these times.

Let’s look at this logically.  I think even fans making these outrageous NHL predictions in favour of their favourite team can agree that a playoff team needs 90 points at an absolute minimum.  The average of the two 8th placed teams last season was 92 so we will use that number to make our following calculations.  The Maple Leafs currently have 25 points in 29 games.  This means that they need to earn, at an absolute minimum, 67 points in their remaining 53 games.  That is an average of 1.265 points per game.  So far this season, only the top 6 teams in the league have a point % greater than 1.265.  To put it into perspective at an absolute minimum, the Leafs would have to win about 31 of their last 53 games, lose 17 in regulation and lose 5 in OT/SO.  Does anyone really think the Maple Leafs can be a top 6 NHL team for the last two-thirds of the season?  I certainly don’t.

Once a team falls behind in this new NHL where the teams are all very equal and many games award the loser a point it is very difficult to make up any ground.  The games at this time of year are extremely important, so if your team is starting to fall off the pace, I advise you to treat every game like it’s the playoffs and watch it intently.

It’s autumn and the Leafs are falling.

I know this topic is very controversial because the Leafs are one of the most popular teams in the league, but it is time to face the facts that our beloved Leafs are falling quickly.  After have a mediocre 6-3 record in the pre-season, the Leafs have failed to win a single game two weeks into the season.  Starting 0-5-1 was not what I was expecting when Burke promised us Leaf fans a better season this year.  Now I know that it is early in the season, and that the Leafs have not played their best hockey so far, but they are currently the laughing stock of the NHL at this point being placed 30th out of a possible 30.  Now you’re probably saying that this guy is not a Leafs fan, but I am, and have been for as long as I could remember.  Right now I am an upset Leafs fan, waiting for the Leafs to start winning some games.  Now people are probably saying, “wait till Phil Kessel comes back from injury”.  Why did the Leafs trade away two first-round picks and a second round pick for a guy who has never gotten more then 60 points (which was last season, and 37 points the year before) and pay him 27 million over 5 years?  Because the Leafs like to pay players more then they are actually worth.  Let’s just take a look at the Leafs defensive line-up.  Only one guy on their defensive line-up should be making more then 4 million dollars, and that guy is undoubtedly Tomas Kaberle.  Before being signed by the Leafs last season to a 3.5 million dollars a year contract, Jeff Finger had played 94 regular season games in the NHL.  Does 94 nhl games provide a new team with experience or even promise of being good?  The reason I point this out is because the Leafs pay guys like this that kind of money when guys such as Dennis Wideman, Brent Seabrook and Cam Barker or making the same type of money.  The reason I bring this up is that the Leafs always over-pay their players after a strong season instead of bringing in solid individuals that can do the job for less and bring in big NHL names like free agents during this summer Marian Gaborik, Martin Havlat or even Marian Hossa.   This is the first of many articles if the Leafs do not decide to pick up their act and start playing real hockey.

Yours truly,

F***ING PISSED OFF LEAF FAN

NHL 2008-2009 Standings Using 3-Point System

I’m a big believer in the NHL switching over to a 3-point system that awards 3 points for regulation wins, 2 points for overtime/shootout wins, 1 point for overtime/shootout losses and nothing for regulation losses.

I feel that the current system of awarding 2 points some games and 3 points others is completely ridiculous because it encourages regulation ties and makes it difficult for teams to gain any ground in the standings during the playoff races.

I’m going to be adding a detailed article outline why I think the NHL should make the switch to the 3-point system in the near future.  In the mean time I have done some research and analyzed how the standings would have looked last year had the 3-point system been used:

Eastern Conference

Standings Using Current System vs Standings Using 3-Point System

	Team	GP	Wins	OT Wins	OT Losses	Losses	Points
1	Boston	82	46	7	10	19	162
2	Washington	82	40	10	8	24	148
3	New Jersey	82	37	14	4	27	143
4	Philadelphia	82	34	10	11	27	133
5	Carolina	82	35	10	7	30	132
6	Pittsburgh	82	33	12	9	28	132
7	Florida	82	34	7	11	30	127
8	New York Rangers	82	30	13	9	30	125
9	Montreal	82	30	11	11	30	123
10	Buffalo	82	31	10	9	32	122
11	Ottawa	82	29	7	11	35	112
12	Toronto	82	24	10	13	35	105
13	Atlanta	82	24	11	6	41	100
14	Tampa Bay	82	19	5	18	40	85
15	New York Islanders	82	20	6	9	47	81

As you can see using the 3-point system would have made some significant changes in the Eastern Conference.  Most notably, the Florida Panthers would have finished seventh with 127 points, passing the New York Rangers and pushing the Montreal Canadiens out of the playoffs.  The Habs played 22 overtime/shootout games in 08-09 and this played a major role in allowing them to sneak into the 8th playoff spot in the East.  Another change would be the Penguins falling from 4th to 6th position.  This would have meant that the Penguins play the New Jersey Devils in the first round of the playoffs, which could have caused the entire Stanley Cup run to play out differently.  Most people would agree at the Panthers deserved to be in the playoffs and likely would have put up more of a fight than the Canadiens.

Western Conference

Standings Using Current System vs Standings Using 3-Point System

		GP	Wins	OT Wins	OT Losses	Losses	Points
1	San Jose	82	44	9	11	18	161
2	Detroit	82	42	9	10	21	154
3	Calgary	82	40	6	6	30	138
4	Chicago	82	36	10	12	24	140
5	Vancouver	82	37	8	10	27	137
6	St. Louis	82	31	10	10	31	123
7	Columbus	82	31	10	10	31	123
8	Minnesota	82	33	7	9	33	122
9	Anaheim	82	30	12	7	33	121
10	Nashville	82	28	12	8	34	116
11	Edmonton	82	31	7	9	35	116
12	Phoenix	82	32	4	7	39	111
13	Dallas	82	25	11	11	35	108
14	Los Angeles	82	26	8	11	37	105
15	Colorado	82	20	12	5	45	89

Using the 3-point system, the Minnesota Wild would have squeaked into the 8th place spot and the Anaheim Mighty Ducks would have missed the playoffs but 1 point.  If that’s not a good race then I don’t know what is.  Sixth through ninth in the West has only a 2 point difference in the West.  This was a 4 point difference using the current system and it’s much more difficult to make up points the way points are currently allotted.  So there goes the argument that the playoff races would be less exciting with the 3-point system.  Both Nashville and Edmonton would have been in it right to the end as well with 116 points a piece.  The only other change the 3-point system would have made is Calgary and Vancouver switching places (but they would both have likely still lost to Havlat and the ‘Hawks anyways ).

As you can see the 3-point system isn’t going to drastically change the standings.  However, it is the fairer way to award points and the slight differences would have been huge for both Florida and Minnesota who really each deserved to be in the playoffs based on their records.  Minnesota played in 3 less overtime games than the Ducks and Florida played in 4 fewer OT games than the Habs.  The current NHL point system is supposedly rewarding competition, but in reality it is rewarding mediocrity.  The teams that play for a tie are rewarded, while the teams that play for the win are penalized.

That’s it for now.  I’ll have another post on this topic within the few days outlining why the NHL should switch to the 3-point system.

Blackhawks Should Trade Patrick Kane

Patrick Kane was recently charged for robbing and abusing a cab driver while home in Buffalo.  This incident once again got me thinking about what a liability Patrick Kane is on such a promising Chicago Blackhawks team.  When a player who is making close to $4,000,000 a year, not including endorsements (Kane is supposed to be featured on upcoming video game NHL 10, but who knows if that will last) blows a gasket because a cabbie doesnt have $0.20 in change you have to start questioning his character.

I personally was a Blackhawks fan last year, but I hated watching Patrick Kane on the ice and was very happy when they limited his ice time in the playoffs.  He is a liability on the ice.  What kind of player is a -1 playing on the top line of the 3rd best team in the West from the regular season.  Compare this to my boy Martin Havlat’s +30 numbers at the same position on the checking line and you will see that Patrick Kane is extremely overrated.  He shouldn’t have even been mentioned in the same sentence as Havlat.

Now that Havlat is gone I no longer consider myself a Blackhawks fan, but I can see the ‘Hawks are in a lot of trouble when it comes to keeping players after this season.  The team is currently almost $5M over the cap for this season and then when you factor in that Toews, Kane and Keith are all restricted free agents next year you have to wonder what Chicago will do.

I think Chicago should trade Kane this year, early in the season and try to get some players who will actually put in what it takes to win.  This means backchecking and going into the corners.  Neither of which Kane will do.  Out of the three restricted free agents Kane is the obvious choice not to sign next year because Toews is the captain and will likely be a lifetime ‘Hawk and Keith is currently one of the best defensemen in the league.  Why not trade Kane early and actually get something back for him when his stock is relative high.  I have no clue why it would be high because I think Kane is as good as he will ever get and that’s a guy who can score, but can’t win.  But if other GM’s think he has an upside let them take him off the Blackhawks hands and get something in return.

If Stan Bowman can deal Kane for a couple solid players or a goalie depending on how Huet pans out the Blackhawks may have a shot at the cup this year.  If not then I can’t see them doing any better than last year.  Especially with no Martin Havlat in the line-up.

The 2009-2010 NHL Schedule has been Released

The NHL released their schedule for the 09-10 season today and this unveiling makes the season seem that much closer. In fact it’s only a short 2 and a half months away. The season opens on October 1st 2009, with 4 games. These games include a couple of hot Canadian rivalries with the Canadiens visiting the Maple Leafs and the Flames at home to the Canucks. The other opening games include the Capitals playing the Bruins and the Sharks in Colorado, where the Avalanche will be retiring Sakic’s number.

Then the traditional overseas games will be held on the 2nd and 3rd of October. The Red Wings and Blues will face off for a couple games in Stockholm, Sweden, while the Panthers and the Blackhawks will be playing not far away in Helsinki, Finland.

Then the real fun starts on October 3rd with all 30 teams in action. Look for the Ottawa Senators and the Minnesota “Martin Havlat” Wild to start their seasons off with a bang.

The winter classic game has also been announced. The game will take place on New Years day at Fenway Park in Boston. The Flyers and Bruins will put on the touques, scarves and tar, as well as strap on the skates for some old time hockey in front of a 100,000 fans. I’m hoping to see Bruins forward, Milan Lucic, put Chris Pronger through the glass and over the boards onto the frozen tundra that is Fenway Park field.

It’s going to be a great year for hockey. It’s anyones guess to win the cup and thanks to the parity of the league, everyone has a chance almost every year. The Olympics will also be a great two week break for players to either represent their country with national pride on the line or rest up for the playoff stretch. Hockey Opinions will be covering all of the action with plenty of opinions and biases to be shown. Check back soon for some early Stanley Cup predictions from our panel of hockey experts fans.

The Delay of Game Over the Glass Penalty is Silly

I’ve been watching a ton of hockey this playoffs and I have seen way too many delay of game penalties for players shooting the puck over the glass.  Not one of these penalties I saw was intentional and several times these silly over the glass delay of game penalties helped to decide the winning team.  The NHL really needs to take a look at this and reassess the severity of the delay of game penalty for shooting the puck over the glass from the defensive zone.

In my hockey opinion the NHL should change the rule to be the same as the icing rule, where if a player flips the puck over the boards the penalty is that they are not allowed to change.  It’s been widely said that the reason this penalty was introduced was because players would flip the puck over the boards when they were tired in order to try to get a change.  This sounds very similar to why players decide to ice the puck.  However the difference is if players flip the puck over the boards they get a two-minute penalty, whereas if they ice the puck they just aren’t allowed to change.  Players make both plays for the same reason and both plays result in the same outcome of a delay in the game, so in my opinion both plays should be penalized the same way.

The over the glass delay of game penalty was to prevent players from intentionally playing the puck over the glass.  Of course nobody intentionally plays the puck over the glass now, but it still happens because in some cases it is inevitable and it’s just a few inches between a solid clear off the glass out of danger and a two minute penalty.  By replacing the two minute penalty for clearing the puck over the glass with the current icing rule that players aren’t allowed to change the NHL will still be able to deter players from intentionally clearing the puck over the glass when they are tired and not risk drastically affecting games from slight misplays.

A perfect example would be when Rick Nash took a penalty for clearing the puck over the glass and Russia went on to score on the powerplay and win the gold over Canada in last years IIHF Hockey Championships.  This is not the way teams should be winning games.  Everyone wants the best team to have the best chance at winning and this penalty only adds variance to the game, which decreases the chances of the right team winning.  I know the NHL wants parity and more goals and awarding silly penalties is one way to get both, but in reality this “delay of game puck over glass” penalty is hurting a lot more than it’s helping.  The penalty was added to do a job.  Now that the NHL has found another way to deter players from delaying the game (not allowing changes) they should quickly do away with this minor penalty and avoid any more controversial finishes.

Early Thoughts on The Second Round (And Balsillie)

This second round of the playoffs is turning out great.  Four good, and hard series being played now, but all eyes are on the Washington Pittsburgh series, and for good reason.  This series is turning into an epic battle between the two best players in the game.  Crosby and Ovechkin are going toe to toe in almost every category.  I noted before that perhaps this series can give some leverage in the Ovechkin, Crosby argument, but it seems like the argument won’t be solved this round.  Now the third best player in the game (Malkin) has been invisible this series he needs to step it up at home for The Pens to have a shot here, otherwise itl be an early exit for The Pens

On The West side of things the Vancouver Chicago series is turning into a good ‘greasy’ battle (As Bieksa would put it), these two teams are fighting hard and it will go a long way.  Byfuglien has been working hard in front of Luongo and he might start to be in the goaltenders head, we will see how game 4 plays out.

The Wings series is turning out to be the series with, maybe the most buzz.  First off we have to discuss game one and the antics that took place there.  The Brown hit on Hudler is the most talked about item of that game.  In my opinion it was a dirty hit, but the refs called it right on the ice.  It was a head shot, that was late.  Even though there was no elbow it was a blow to the head, and specifically the type of hit we want out of the game.  Also Brown jumped off the ice to hit the much smaller, and more skilled Hudler.  The emergence of Ericsson has been amazing.  This rookie is playing more minutes a game than the best defensemen in the league (Lidstrom), this will most likely change when Rafalski gets back, but it is nice to see Ericsson play at this level, and even fight with Perry (and win).

Game two saw Rafalski sit out again, and the Wings need him their power play isnt as efficient and they are playing worse.  I always like the long overtime games, and this one wasn’t any different. Some people are arguing that these overtime game lack in substance, but they are amazing the watch, and also the way the games in the playoffs should be decided.  Even though the Wings lost this one, it was a good game to watch and Hiller deserved the win for the way he played.

Game 3 is where everything spins out of control.  First off the Ducks second goal was interference by Niedermayer.  You can’t jump on the goalie when he is trying to make a save.  This ticks me off, and surely every Wings fan out there.  Holmstrom gets within an inch of the goalie and gets called for interference, but Niedermayer can jump on the goalie to prevent Osgood from making a goal stopping save?  I fail to see the logic in that.  Now at the end of the game the puck clearly went in before the whistle, but it is intent to blow the whistle that matter, not the actual sound.  Brad Watson  the referee in question was in a horrible position, all the way in the corner when the play was at the net, but Bob Mckenzie said it best on tsn.  Stating that human error will happen by the officials as long as their are human officials and not everything is reviewable.  Now this one will get blow up because of the time, but their is nothing we can do about it now.  The Wings need to forget about this and move to game 4.  Datsyuk, and Hossa really need to start scoring, or Babcock has to mix up the lines but losing game 4 would be horrible for the Wings chances.  Now, game aside hopefully Wisnieski has a speedy recovery, taking off on a strecher is scary, and their is no u pdate on what happend to him, other then he is in stable condition

A quick note on the Pheonix situation.  Balsillie made a bid to buy the team with a clause that they would be moved to Southern Ontario.  This is great for hockey, while I do support all teams, these lower market teams (Nashville, Pheonix, Florida etc.. ) are losing money and it makes sense to move them to a place where they make money.  In the past we have seen some teams get revitalized such as Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Tampa after they won the cup.  Saying that it’s best to weigh all the option, but the bottom line is Pheonix has fallen under and their is a dedicated owner willing to buy them and move them to a great market.  Balsillie learnt from his previous outings and used the bankruptcy court this time.  He is putting all the power in the courts hands, and the question is does the bankruptcy court have the right to dictate a move by an nhl franchise?  This situation will unfold thrusday as all parties are meeting to start discussions.

Round One Recap

San Jose Vs. Anaheim

The best player in this series was no doubt Hiller, followed closely by Getzlaf.  The sharks have been favored for years to advance far into the stanley cup playoffs, nothing change this year.  After being out scored, out hit, and out goaltendended again in the playoffs Thorton and Marleau’s leadership abilities have come into question.  Their are even rumours swirling that Marleau and\or Thorton are on the out’s from San Jose.  Enough about San Jose, lets talk bout the winners.  The top line from the Ducks featuring Ryan, Getzlaf, and Perry played amazing, arguably one of the best in the first series.  Niedermayer led the way on defence, and Pronger had a great series.  We must not forget about hte efforts of Beauchemain, and Wisneski.  I Called San Jose in this series, but this is the last time I bank on San Jose

Detroit Vs. Columbus

Best player in the series was Osgood, showing why hes one of the best playoff goalies of our generation.  There isnt much to write about this series.  No one took Columbus as a threat and the Wings just mowed over the Blue Jackets.  I called this series correctly, but then again who didn’t.

Vancover Vs. St-Louis

Best player in this series was Luongo.  Once again no surprises here, even though the Blues were the hottest team going into the playoffs, Vancover was superior on paper, and that translated nicely onto the ice.  A physical series that didn’t last very long.  I called this series correctly.

Chicago Vs. Calgary

By far the best series in the west, with the best player being Seabrook.  Seabrook is now the highest scoring defensemen in the playoffs played a good shut-down role alongside Keith and really gave it to Igilna, who was mediocore, at best in this series.  This series has intense physical battles, Byfuglien, Burrish played their roles perfectly.  Byfuglien was a force all series even scoring goals, and being a good finess player (See his play in the last game where he circled Leopold).  Toews played great in his frist series, but Kane, Jokinen, and Cammaleri weren’t anything amazing but nevertheless fun to watch.  I took Chicago in this series.

Boston Vs. Montreal

Its hard to pick a best player in this Series I will give the award to Kessel, Savard, Chara, and Ryder.  It’s hard to say anything positive about this series Montreal centenial season was plagued with downs, and this series was another one of those downs.  Boston played a physical game and this took its toll on the Habs and threw them off their game. Like everyone else I took Boston in this series

Washington Vs. Rangers

Varlemov was probably the best player in this series, but facing a low scoring Rangers offence can make any goalie look good.  The star players from the Capitals didnt play particularily good, but luckily neither did the Ranger’s.  I tookl the Rangers to win this series for one reason.  I didnt think a team backstopped by Theodore could win a series, and I was technically right, but I know now to not overestimate the ranger.  Lundquist could steal a game or two b ut not 4.

New Jersey Vs. Carolina

You have to say Stall was the best player in this series.  What an end to game 7, kudos to the Canes for not quitting.  I expected alot more from the Devils after a terrific season without Brodeur, but I guess even Brodeur couldnt prevent Gleason from making that amazing play to keep the puck alive in the final minutes of game 7.  I took New Jersey in this series, but I would still do the same pick, and don’t regret it.

Pittsburg Vs. Philidelpia

The best players in this series was Crosby and Malkin.  Another tough chapter in the battle of Pensylvania once again the Pens come out as victors.  I would have liked to see more of Gonchar in this series, not just Gonchar, but also all of the Pittsburg defense squad wasent too engaged in the series.  The Flyers put up a good fight but their highest paid player in Briere wasn’t anywhere to be found.  Also, nice to see Giroux stand up and show how good of a player he actually is. I called Pittsburg to win this series.

Round Two Predictions to come

Who’s got Hart?

Today the final three nominees for this year’s Hart Trophy (aka MVP) award were announced. This award is meant to be awarded to the ”player adjudged most valuable to his team”. The three nominees are Evgeni Malkin, Alexander Ovechkin, and Pavel Datsyuk. A case could easily be made for any of these three talented forwards.

Pavel Datsyuk

Datsyuk may not quite be at the top with Malkin and Ovechkin when it comes to points, but for the second year in a row, he is up for the Selke trophy (best defensive forward). Being as good as he is defensively may not put quite as many fans in the stands but it is very valuable to any successfuly team. On top of being one of the top forwards defensively, he also has undeniably amazing skills, and he did get 97 points which is notable on its own. The only downside to Datsyuk for the Hart is that he has an amazing team, therefore it is arguable that they could be good even without this all-around all-star.

Evgeni Malkin

This young star has been shadowed since his arrival by the presence of Crosby, but this year he has emerged and shown that he can be just as good if not better than Sid the Kid. He lead the league in points this year, and led his team back from a shaky start into the fourth spot in the Eastern conference and also past the Flyers in round 1. The problem that i see with giving Malkin the Hart is much the same one as giving it to Datsyuk, I mean he is on the same team as Sid, and either of these guys could easily be called the best in the game, so how do you say that they were the most valuable to any single team?

Alexander Ovechkin

Last but not least, Alex the Great. This guy is my personal nominee. Once again he has lead the league in goals scored in a season, only this time he missed the points title by 3. My arguments for both of the other players were the same, and you could say the same about Ovi and the Caps. Ovechkin had the help of Semin, Green, and Backstrom to get his team to 2nd place. I think the difference is that every year, the Caps exceed expectations, and I believe that Ovechkin has a lot to do with that. Who expected Washington to finish 2nd in the East? I sure didn’t. You can’t say the same for the likes of Detroit or Pittsburgh, both these teams won their conferences last year, and had minimal losses last offseason (except for Hossa going from one to the other). But the Caps exceeded expectations this season, and i think that is the deciding factor, Ovi did the most with the least.

Round 1

Round 1 was an action-packed round full of everything from upsets (Anaheim over SJ) to expected sweeps (Boston over Habs) to 7 game series with unbelievable endings (Carolina over NJ), from coach-fan altercations (Tortorella) to fights between two all-stars (Thornton vs. Getzlaf). As a hockey fan I am thoroughly satisfied with round 1, i just hope round 2 can provide as much excitement.

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