2012 Stanley Cup Favourites

The Boston Bruins have won the Cup, the entry draft has completed and free agent frenzy is winding to a halt.  The only place I can get my NHL fix is thinking about next season and which teams have the best shot at lifting the Stanley Cup.  I check out 5Dimes.com to see the Stanley Cup odds for next season and it really got me thinking about which teams have a legit shot.  Here are a few teams I like to go far next season and who I will be placing wagers on because their odds are too good to pass up:

Chicago Blackhawks @ +1500

The Blackhawks are the 8th favourites to win the Stanley Cup next season and I personally have them slotted much higher.  I don’t necessarily think they will finish atop their division or even have home ice advantage in the first round of the playoffs, but the Blackhawks have the pieces in place to be a contender every year.  If they score the goal in overtime of game 7 against Vancouver this season I can guarantee that their odds would be closer to 10/1 right now.  People are quick to forget how a team played and instead just remember that they lost in the first round.  The Blackhawks have the top two lines in the NHL, with possibly the exception of San Jose, and their top defensemen are elite and will be hungry to get back to the top.  The loss of Brian Campbell will hurt this team more than most people think, but Nick Leddy is ready to step up with more ice time and Hjalmarsson should play better than he did last season when he let his play slip slightly.  The additions of Brunette, Carcillo and Mayers should bolster the teams depth and tenacity up front, but it really comes down to the fact that Kane, Toews, Hossa, Sharp and Bolland are just too good.  Corey Crawford is no slouch in goal either.  If the Blackhawks can get the best out of their players and add a bit more depth on defense they should have a very good chance to win the Cup this season.

San Jose Sharks @ +1200

The Sharks are the 6th rated team according to the oddsmakers.  They have made the Conference Finals two years in a row, but haven’t put up much of a fight at that stage.  The Sharks were just too slow and lacked the depth on defense both years.  The addition of Brent Burns should help the defense and take some of the responsibility away from Dan Boyle, while the Havlat for Heatley trade will bring more speed and and greater drive to win when it matters most.  The Sharks still have some positions open for depth forwards and they could do with adding a solid shutdown defenseman with speed.  Niemi is solid in goal, having already won a Stanley Cup, so it’s really the depth up front and the defensive d-men that this team is lacking in order to become a Stanley Cup Champion.  I have confidence that Doug Wilson will address these needs.  I’ve liked what he’s done so far this summer.

For Those Interested…

Here are the odds for the other 8 from the top 10 at 5Dimes.com.  Once it gets past them there really is no hope for finding a Cup Champion.

• Vancouver Canucks +675
• Pittsburgh Penguins +850
• Washington Capitals +1000
• Boston Bruins +1100
• Philadelphia Flyers +1100
• Detroit Red Wings +1250
• LA Kings +1700
• Buffalo Sabres, Nashville Predators, Tampa Bay Lightning +2000 each

**On an unrelated note a friend of mine is starting a Financial Spread Betting website. Just wanted to give him a little shout out.

San Jose Sharks Win the Havlat for Heatley Trade

The San Jose Sharks and Minnesota Wild once again came out of nowhere announcing a blockbuster deal last night that will send Dany Heatley to the Minnesota Wild in exchange for Martin Havlat (the two teams dealt Burns for Setoguchi a few days earlier).  I’ve taken a look at this deal from a variety of perspectives and have to say that the Sharks definitely seem to have made a solid move here, but the Wild also needed a shake up and if they can get the best out of Dany Heatley the deal could work for both teams.

The Money

Dany Heatley has 3 years left on his deal that carries a cap hit of $7.5 Million, while Havlat has 4 years left on a deal that has a $5 M cap hit per season.  This more than compensates for the $0.5 M extra the Sharks took on with the Burns for Setoguchi swap and leaves the Sharks with $2M of space left to work with.  This cash can be used to add some depth to the bottom 6 forwards as well as add some stronger defensive d-men for crucial situations (the defense of the Sharks were outplayed against the Canucks this playoffs).

Winner: San Jose Sharks

The Needs

Doug Wilson came out and said that the Sharks needed to add speed to their top 6 forwards and Marty Havlat is one of the quicker players in the league and has breakaway type speed.  Needless to say that Dany Heatley’s game is not built around speed and it seemed like he lost a step the past couple seasons.  With Brunette likely to not resign in Minnesota the Wild needed a similar player to score goals around the net.  Heatley can do this and he also has a superior shot to Brunette if he can get to the open spots.  Koivu is known more of a hardnose working type player that has the skills to score, but by no means is he known as your typical playmaker like Heatley has had with Thornton and Spezza over the past several seasons.  Havlat and Koivu never really had a chance to mesh their styles of play because the Koivu/Brunette/Miettinen line was so strong and had been together for several years.  Heatley should definitely get the chance to play with Koivu and it will be interesting to see if the two mesh.

Winner: Remains to be seen

Better All Around Player

Martin Havlat is a very underrated player in the league for a variety of reasons.  Number one Havlat is known as a player who is always one hit away from injury.  That argument may not be fair as he has adjusted his game in recent years and has averaged 77 games each season over those past few seasons.  Havlat has also never played with as talented as players as himself.  In Minnesota Havlat was not on the top line due to their previous chemistry and instead usually lined up with Latendresse, Clutterbuck or Brodziak.  In Chicago it was much of the same with Havlat playing mostly with Dave Bolland, Andrew Ladd and other second tier players compared to himself (and Kane, Toews and Sharp), yet Havlat still led the team in scoring in both the regular season and the playoffs.  Even back in Ottawa Havlat was generally the 3rd RW on the depth chart behind Alfredsson and Hossa.  Havlat has the ability to make players around him better and has shown throughout his career that he does not need superstar teammates to produce.

Heatley on the other hand has typically had top tier linemates and it seems like his best days are behind him.  Heatley set the bar pretty high in Ottawa with a high points per game output of about 1.25 points/game, but this has dwindled of late and last season he only managed 0.8 points per game and even less in the playoffs.

Havlat will be able to play with any of the solid top 6 forwards on the Sharks, while it remains to be seen if Heatley will produce without an elite playmaking center.

Winner: San Jose Sharks

Playoff Performance

Havlat lives for the playoffs and he stated that playing for a top quality team and being able to play in the playoffs was the reason he waived his no movement clause.  If you watched any of the Blackhawks Conference Finals run in Havlat’s last year with the team you will know he brings it when it matters most.  His 15 points in 16 games led the team (even though he missed a couple games in the Detroit series from the Kronwall hit – which he did try to comeback from the next game showing his heart).  In his last 26 playoff games Havlat has 28 points and many of these were very important points for the team including a few series winning goals that I remember (overtime against Calgary in round 1 with the Blackhawks, overtime against Philly in round 1 with the Senators – just off the top of my head).

Heatley had a horrible playoffs last season scoring 9 points in 18 games and just not looking dangerous whatsoever.  He did have a good playoffs when the Senators made the Cup Finals a few years back, but Heatley just doesn’t seem to be the same player with the same drive.

Winner: It’s hard to say when we will likely only see Havlat in the playoffs over the next few seasons, but I’m sure he won’t disappoint – San Jose Sharks

I for one see this as a great move for the San Jose Sharks and I am even going to go as far as place a wager at an online betting site for the San Jose Sharks to win the Stanley Cup next season with the help of Havlat and Burns!