NHL Stanley Cup Finals Betting

The rematch has been set.  It’s the defending Stanley Cup Champions Detroit Red Wings in a rematch with defending and present Eastern Conference Champion Pittsburgh Penguins.  Last year the series took 6 games to decide, but the Wings never looked like they could lose.  This year it’s basically the same Red Wings team against a slightly tweaked Penguins team.  The series odds look like this:

Penguins +135
Red Wings -155

The Red Wings are given a slight edge in this series by the bookies, but in my opinion their edge is actually much higher.  The Wings stormed through the Hawks, even without Datsyuk and Lidstrom for a few games in the series.  (Given Havlat and Khabibulin were also out and those 2 are huge parts of the Hawks team).  A few Red Wings including Datsyuk, Holmstrom and even arguably Hossa are still waiting to play their best hockey and when better to play it than the Stanley Cup Finals.  Look for Zetterberg to have another great series, as well as “The Mule” Franzen.

Pittsburgh is currently firing on all cylinders riding a 5 game winning streak into the finals and having both Crosby and Malkin finding their A games at the same time.  A good reason for this might be that they were playing defensively challenged teams Washington and Carolina, and an injured Cam Ward.  But you still have to give them credit, especially Malkin, for realy bringing it when it matters.  In my hockey opinion this level of offense isn’t going to continue for them against Detroit.  The Wings aren’t even that great a defensive team, but they will be able to shut down at least one line as long as Lidstrom is healthy.  If the Penguins are going to win they will need an amazing performance from Fleury and both Crosby and Malkin to be firing on all cylinders for the duration of the finals.  The Pens definitely have a better chance than last year, but they are just not good enough to dethrone the champs.

Bet on the Detroit Red Wings in this series.

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Red Wings vs Ducks Recap and Prediction for the Detroit vs Chicago Blackhawks Conference Finals

Wings and Ducks recap

Well the Wings barely snuck out of this series, but what a series this was.  Starting right off the bat with controversey in game one with the Hudler hit, and then the triple overtime in game two.  Moving to Anaheim we saw the disallowed goal, and then the Wings come back and chase Hiller out of the net in game 5. Game six saw the Ducks rebound and prevent the Wings from finishing another series out on the road.  Game 7 was the best game seven of these playoff we saw hits, goals, saves, and of course octapi.  With the Wings taking this series they move on to the conferance finals to meet Chicago.

The Wings won this series because of many things.  Firstly Osgood still showed us why he is one of the best playoff goaltenders of all time besting Patrick Roy in goals against average (2.11 Vs. 2.30 in the playoffs), but also following that up with three Stanley Cup Rings.  Beyond the crease Rafalski returned for game 6 and 7 quickly returning to form and moving alongside his usual partner of Lindstrom, thus keeping the other two tandums in tact (Stuart and Kronwall, Lebda and Ericsson).  The Defense played well but Lindstrom couldnt find the offensive production he had in game one, and Rafalski needs to get back on the scoreboard.  Offensively the Wings were terrific all lines were contributing, on both ends of the ice.  Babcock did shuffle the lines successfully to win game 4 moving Franzen with Filpulla and Hossa, while reuniting Datsyuk, Holmstrom and Zetterberg.  This trio didnt stay together long as Holmstrom quickley made his way into the dog house.  Babcock will keep shuffling Holmstrom around till he starts producing.

The Ducks lost for one reason they couldnt find secondary scoring beyond the first line.  Carlyle did shuffle up Getzlaf, Ryan, and Perry but never kep them apart for long.  Selanne did contribute but that was it.  The Ducks were not rolling four lines as well as the Wings were and this tired them out after that long game 2.  The Ducks weren’t the disciplined team that they needed to be taking stupid penalties throughout the whole series, but luckily the Wings powerplay took a drop without Rafalski in the lineup.  While Hiller shone greatly in this series, he lost his confidence and edge in games 4 and 5 getting chased and letting in nine goals.

Moving on for this Ducks team is this the last game for Selanne, and Niedermayer two future hall of famers?  What happens to Giguere after the emergence of Hiller. What is Anaheim going to do to adress their secondary scoring problems?

Detroit and Chicago

This will be another great series.  Detroit beat Chicago in the season series 4-2 including a great Winter Classic showdown.  Both these teams will be energized and ready to play sunday, this two day break, along with the minimal travel time between Chicago and Detroit will keep this a fast paced, high goal scoring series.

Detroit will win because of experiance and depth plain and simple They’ve been here the last two years and seem better this year then they were last year. All four lines for Detroit are firing, and Detroit still has some players in teh reserve if needed in Maltby, Mcarthy, and Meech.  Homer and Datsyuk will have to come up big this series, they need to revitalize their first line specially against the Keith Seabrook tandum.  The Franzen line will be against Campbell Hjalmarsson which will be tough but Campbell has lost some of his edge in the playoffs, and they haven’t faced players the likes of Hossa and Franzen yet so that will be an interesting battle.

Chicago  Will need to keep firing, and they have a chance if their secondary scoring comes up big like it did in round two, this is what Anaheim lacked to win.  Khabibulin hasent played as spectacular as Hiller has, but wiht cup experiance he has it in him, so we will see how he performs.  Kane, Toews, and Havlat haven’t faced a great defensive squad like the Wings so that will be the Hawks biggest test

Prediction

I think Detroit takes this in 6, the young Chicago team hasn’t played at this level yet it will be interesting to see how they react

Bet on Round 3 Conference Finals of the NHL Playoffs

So, in round 2 I told you 3 teams to bet on.  The Penguins, the Blackhawks and the Bruins.  Two of my three picks came through, but those Bruins couldn’t beat the Cardiac Canes.  This round the match-ups are very interesting and I hope to pick them both right this time around.

Eastern Conference Finals

Hurricanes +175
Penguins – 205

Personally I think this series could go either way.   I would probably give the Pens a small edge, but not as big an edge as these odds are implying they have.  There just seems to be something special about the Hurricanes this year and the big brothers usually win their fights.  Look for Cam Ward to stand on his head and this series to go at least 6 games.   Both of these teams won their second round match ups in 7 and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this series go the distance as well.  If that is the case it’s anyones guess who would take it, so go with the underdogs and the good return on your bet because the Canes just don’t seem like they will lay down at this point.

Bet on Carolina

Western Conference Finals

Blackhawks +195
Red Wings -235

This is another series that I think could go either way.  The odds are extremely one sided and I can’t see any reason for this.  The Blackhawks have had a much tougher road the Conference Finals and will be the first team that will actually test Osgood in net.  The young Blackhawks team has shown a lot of character thus far in the playoffs and they are now my pick to win the cup.  Watch for Havlat to pick it up this series and Kane and Toews to continue their solid play from game 6 of the previous series.  The Wings do have more weapons than either the Flames or the Nucks did, so a lot of pressure will fall on Brian Campbell and Hjalmarsson to shut down the extremely strong second line of the Wings.  We know Keith and Seabrook will do their part on whichever line Quennville feels is most dangerous so it will come down to Campbell and Hjalmarsson having a solid series.  If these two step up and Khabibulin plays a little better than he has so far in the playoffs the Blackhawks will continue on their way to the finals.  I think the series could go either way and for this reason again you should be on the team with the best return on the investment, which in this case is the Blackhawks.

Bet on Chicago.

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These are my hockey betting opinions.  Use them wisely!

The Delay of Game Over the Glass Penalty is Silly

I’ve been watching a ton of hockey this playoffs and I have seen way too many delay of game penalties for players shooting the puck over the glass.  Not one of these penalties I saw was intentional and several times these silly over the glass delay of game penalties helped to decide the winning team.  The NHL really needs to take a look at this and reassess the severity of the delay of game penalty for shooting the puck over the glass from the defensive zone.

In my hockey opinion the NHL should change the rule to be the same as the icing rule, where if a player flips the puck over the boards the penalty is that they are not allowed to change.  It’s been widely said that the reason this penalty was introduced was because players would flip the puck over the boards when they were tired in order to try to get a change.  This sounds very similar to why players decide to ice the puck.  However the difference is if players flip the puck over the boards they get a two-minute penalty, whereas if they ice the puck they just aren’t allowed to change.  Players make both plays for the same reason and both plays result in the same outcome of a delay in the game, so in my opinion both plays should be penalized the same way.

The over the glass delay of game penalty was to prevent players from intentionally playing the puck over the glass.  Of course nobody intentionally plays the puck over the glass now, but it still happens because in some cases it is inevitable and it’s just a few inches between a solid clear off the glass out of danger and a two minute penalty.  By replacing the two minute penalty for clearing the puck over the glass with the current icing rule that players aren’t allowed to change the NHL will still be able to deter players from intentionally clearing the puck over the glass when they are tired and not risk drastically affecting games from slight misplays.

A perfect example would be when Rick Nash took a penalty for clearing the puck over the glass and Russia went on to score on the powerplay and win the gold over Canada in last years IIHF Hockey Championships.  This is not the way teams should be winning games.  Everyone wants the best team to have the best chance at winning and this penalty only adds variance to the game, which decreases the chances of the right team winning.  I know the NHL wants parity and more goals and awarding silly penalties is one way to get both, but in reality this “delay of game puck over glass” penalty is hurting a lot more than it’s helping.  The penalty was added to do a job.  Now that the NHL has found another way to deter players from delaying the game (not allowing changes) they should quickly do away with this minor penalty and avoid any more controversial finishes.

Early Thoughts on The Second Round (And Balsillie)

This second round of the playoffs is turning out great.  Four good, and hard series being played now, but all eyes are on the Washington Pittsburgh series, and for good reason.  This series is turning into an epic battle between the two best players in the game.  Crosby and Ovechkin are going toe to toe in almost every category.  I noted before that perhaps this series can give some leverage in the Ovechkin, Crosby argument, but it seems like the argument won’t be solved this round.  Now the third best player in the game (Malkin) has been invisible this series he needs to step it up at home for The Pens to have a shot here, otherwise itl be an early exit for The Pens

On The West side of things the Vancouver Chicago series is turning into a good ‘greasy’ battle (As Bieksa would put it), these two teams are fighting hard and it will go a long way.  Byfuglien has been working hard in front of Luongo and he might start to be in the goaltenders head, we will see how game 4 plays out.

The Wings series is turning out to be the series with, maybe the most buzz.  First off we have to discuss game one and the antics that took place there.  The Brown hit on Hudler is the most talked about item of that game.  In my opinion it was a dirty hit, but the refs called it right on the ice.  It was a head shot, that was late.  Even though there was no elbow it was a blow to the head, and specifically the type of hit we want out of the game.  Also Brown jumped off the ice to hit the much smaller, and more skilled Hudler.  The emergence of Ericsson has been amazing.  This rookie is playing more minutes a game than the best defensemen in the league (Lidstrom), this will most likely change when Rafalski gets back, but it is nice to see Ericsson play at this level, and even fight with Perry (and win).

Game two saw Rafalski sit out again, and the Wings need him their power play isnt as efficient and they are playing worse.  I always like the long overtime games, and this one wasn’t any different. Some people are arguing that these overtime game lack in substance, but they are amazing the watch, and also the way the games in the playoffs should be decided.  Even though the Wings lost this one, it was a good game to watch and Hiller deserved the win for the way he played.

Game 3 is where everything spins out of control.  First off the Ducks second goal was interference by Niedermayer.  You can’t jump on the goalie when he is trying to make a save.  This ticks me off, and surely every Wings fan out there.  Holmstrom gets within an inch of the goalie and gets called for interference, but Niedermayer can jump on the goalie to prevent Osgood from making a goal stopping save?  I fail to see the logic in that.  Now at the end of the game the puck clearly went in before the whistle, but it is intent to blow the whistle that matter, not the actual sound.  Brad Watson  the referee in question was in a horrible position, all the way in the corner when the play was at the net, but Bob Mckenzie said it best on tsn.  Stating that human error will happen by the officials as long as their are human officials and not everything is reviewable.  Now this one will get blow up because of the time, but their is nothing we can do about it now.  The Wings need to forget about this and move to game 4.  Datsyuk, and Hossa really need to start scoring, or Babcock has to mix up the lines but losing game 4 would be horrible for the Wings chances.  Now, game aside hopefully Wisnieski has a speedy recovery, taking off on a strecher is scary, and their is no u pdate on what happend to him, other then he is in stable condition

A quick note on the Pheonix situation.  Balsillie made a bid to buy the team with a clause that they would be moved to Southern Ontario.  This is great for hockey, while I do support all teams, these lower market teams (Nashville, Pheonix, Florida etc.. ) are losing money and it makes sense to move them to a place where they make money.  In the past we have seen some teams get revitalized such as Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh, and Tampa after they won the cup.  Saying that it’s best to weigh all the option, but the bottom line is Pheonix has fallen under and their is a dedicated owner willing to buy them and move them to a great market.  Balsillie learnt from his previous outings and used the bankruptcy court this time.  He is putting all the power in the courts hands, and the question is does the bankruptcy court have the right to dictate a move by an nhl franchise?  This situation will unfold thrusday as all parties are meeting to start discussions.

Round 2 Predictions (East)

Pits Vs. Washington

This is the series everyone wants to see.  The classic showdown Crosby and Malkin against Ovechkin.  This series will most likely silence the critics, and ultimately pick who is the better player.  Also this series might play heavily into the Hart Trophy voting

Washington came back from a 3-1 deficit in round one to wrap up the series in 7 games.  Although this may seem as a feat it is not much.  The Rangers got lucky to push Washington that far.  In this series we need to see Ovechkin, Semin, Backstrom, and Green all play better.  Other then Ovechkins wonderful goal these 4 weren’t the difference makers they need to be to win this series.  Varlemov has to keep up his stellar play in this round, because the Caps got no other options in goal.

Crosby and Malkin have been firing on all cylinders, and are leading their team going into this second round.  Jordan Stall and Gonchar need to up the ante here.  Staal got a new contract but he needs to play like hes earned that new contract.  Also Gonchar was not playing as good as he can, while Letang was playing better then expected.  It seems Washington has the edge in goal, but don’t count out Fleury he has been here before and Varlemov hasent faced a real offence yet.

Prediction is Pens in 6 I think Varlemov will cave under the Pens offence, and Fleury will pick up his game

Boston Vs. Carolina

Little to say here I think Boston is the clear favorite,  Carolina spoiled New Jerseys party last round.  This in my opinion was a little bit of a fluke but Staal and Whitney arent enough to take down the Boston’s depth Chart.

Boston in 5